2023-03-15-世界银行-场外交易_理解和减轻基础设施的财政风险（英）_179页_4mb

Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending is inadequate and declining. Fiscal risks arise from all major infrastructure delivery modalities—direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and public-private partnerships (PPPs)—often exceeding budget projections. SOEs, in particular, require frequent annual fiscal injections averaging 0.25% of GDP. PPP renegotiations cost about 0.2% of GDP in well-governed countries, while early terminations pose substantial risks amidst economic shocks.

A comprehensive reform agenda is essential for sustainable infrastructure funding. This includes strengthening integrated public investment management, enhancing SOE governance, implementing robust PPP frameworks, and conducting integrated fiscal risk management. Transparent government capacity building is critical across these areas to mitigate risks like cost overruns, underperformance, and tail risks during downturns.

Key recommendations are tailored to modalities: for direct public provision, improve project management and maintenance; for SOEs, limit quasi-fiscal burdens and strengthen financial oversight; for PPPs, reduce demand risk through flexible contracts and enhance fiscal disciplines in procurement and contract management. These reforms must be adapted to national contexts and institutional capacities.

By understanding and addressing these fiscal risks, governments can create sustainable fiscal space for critical infrastructure investments.