世界银行-帐外：理解和缓解电力行业的财政风险（英）-2023-10页_519kb

Off the Books: Fiscal Risks in Power Sector Analysis

This report from the World Bank examines fiscal risks in power infrastructure investments across low- and middle-income countries, highlighting the prevalence of risks such as cost overruns, inefficient spending, and fiscal surprises from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public-private partnerships (PPPs). The analysis draws on data from sources like the BOOST database and the World Bank Infrastructure SOEs Database, revealing that fiscal risks are substantial and vary by provision modality.

Key Findings

• Fiscal risks arise from governance challenges, including poor public investment management, soft budget constraints, and contractual flaws in PPPs.
• In 2009–18, PPPs and SOEs dominate power spending (9% direct public vs. 60% SOEs and 31% PPPs in capital expenditure).
• Risks include short-term cost overruns from budget underexecution, medium-term unplanned capital calls for maintenance, and long-term vulnerability to fiscal adjustments.

Fiscal Risks by Provision Modality

• Direct Public Provision: Fiscal surprises from cost overruns, asset deterioration, and budget underperformance (e.g., electricity spending under 0.2–0.3% of GDP).
• SOEs: Significant fiscal injections (average 0.25% of GDP) due to subsidies, fuel price volatility, and operational inefficiencies. SOEs amplify economic shocks and require frequent capital recapitalization.
• PPPs: Lower fiscal risks compared to other sectors, but risks from contract renegotiation and early termination can lead to substantial fiscal demands (up to 16x increase during crises).

Mitigation Recommendations

• Implement integrated public investment management to prioritize value-for-money projects and ensure fiscal affordability.
• Strengthen SOE governance by reducing policy interference, enforcing transparent compensation, and improving financial management.
• Enhance PPP frameworks with robust contract management to limit opportunistic behavior and allocate risks effectively.
• Adopt integrated fiscal risk management, including macroeconomic stability measures and disaster resilience strategies.

The report emphasizes tailoring reforms to country-specific institutional and socio-political contexts to effectively mitigate fiscal risks and support sustainable power sector development.