世界银行-2024年基础设施监测（英）_23页_2mb

Summary of Infrastructure Monitor 2024

Core Content

The Infrastructure Monitor 2024 report provides a comprehensive overview of global private investment trends in infrastructure, highlighting key developments in investment volumes, financial performance, policy changes, and the role of blended finance and guarantees in bridging investment gaps. It emphasizes the importance of regulatory frameworks, ESG considerations, and the resilience of infrastructure as an asset class amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Main Points

Global Investment Trends

• Greenfield investment rebounded in developed markets in 2023, increasing by 10% in nominal terms, while emerging markets experienced a slight decline.
• Secondary market investments dropped by 17% in 2023 due to reduced acquisition activity, but preliminary data for 2024 suggests a potential rebound as interest rates began to fall.
• Infrastructure investment levels are significantly higher than the five-year average (2018-2022), showing strong post-pandemic recovery.

Impact of Rising Interest Rates

• Higher interest rates have tempered return expectations and reduced fundraising in 2023, with total capital raised dropping to $94.9 billion.
• Despite this, infrastructure funds remain relatively resilient, with an average return of 11.3% from 2016-2022 and a slight projected decline to 10.9% by 2028.
• Private equity and venture capital are expected to experience steeper declines, making infrastructure more attractive to equity investors.

Infrastructure Resilience

• Infrastructure financing has maintained a stable debt-to-equity ratio over the past decade, with 77% debt financing in 2023.
• Infrastructure debt is more reliable and lower risk compared to non-financial corporate debt, with a five-year cumulative default rate (CDR) of 0.7% versus 5.4% for non-infrastructure debt.
• Revenue-resilient infrastructure (such as regulated utilities and availability-based PPPs) exhibits even lower default rates and higher recovery rates, reinforcing the value of structured financing models.

Sectoral Shifts and ESG Integration

• Renewable energy and transport have historically dominated infrastructure investment, but renewables regained the lead in 2023 with investment more than doubling.
• Digital infrastructure has become a key sector, especially in secondary markets, due to digital transformation and post-pandemic stimulus.
• ESG considerations are increasingly central to infrastructure investment, with greenfield investments in primary markets now representing 50% of volumes.
• ESG scores for infrastructure assets have risen, reflecting broader policy commitments to carbon neutrality and sustainability-linked financing.

Investment Gaps and Policy Influence

• There is a growing divergence in investment levels between high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with HICs seeing a 15% increase in 2023.
• LMICs are increasingly reliant on development institutions and non-private financing, with development finance institutions (DFIs) and multilateral development banks (MDBs) playing a critical role in mobilizing private capital.
• Blended finance and guarantees are seen as effective tools to bridge investment gaps, especially in lower-income countries.

Opportunities for Emerging Markets

• Local currency financing (LCF) is growing in importance, with 37% of infrastructure financing in LMICs in 2023 conducted in local currency, down from 50% in 2022.
• The top 6 LMICs (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey) have a much higher proportion of LCF compared to other LMICs, closer to HIC levels.
• Capital markets are becoming more important for emerging markets, with green, sustainability-linked, and project bonds used to attract institutional investors seeking long-term, stable assets.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The report draws on aggregated data from leading infrastructure databases, including Realfin, Preqin, GRESB, and the World Bank.
• Limitations: Data coverage and quality vary across countries and income groups, and regional breakdowns are not always available.
• Challenges: Higher interest rates have reduced acquisition activity and secondary market investment, while LMICs face higher investment risks and greater reliance on public financing.
• Future Outlook: Closing the investment gap between HICs and LMICs will require targeted policy interventions, regulatory strengthening, and innovative financing solutions.

Report Structure

The full report is organized into the following chapters:

• Chapter 1: Investment trends
• Chapter 2: Funds
• Chapter 3: Financial performance
• Chapter 4: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors in infrastructure
• Chapter 5: Blended finance & Guarantees

Conclusion

Infrastructure investment continues to show resilience and attractiveness despite macroeconomic headwinds, particularly in developed markets. However, emerging markets lag behind, highlighting the need for policy reforms, regulatory improvements, and innovative financing mechanisms to unlock greater private sector participation in sustainable infrastructure development.