2022-02-28-IMF-美元主导地位的隐形侵蚀_积极多元化和非传统储备货币的崛起（英）_42页_863kb

The decline in the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves, from 71% in 1999 to 59% in 2021, represents an active shift away from the dollar by central banks, not driven by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, or specific policies like reserve accumulation by a few large holders or alterations in survey coverage. Instead, this decline reflects deliberate portfolio diversification, with reserves increasingly allocated to nontraditional currencies, meaning currencies of smaller economies without the scale of traditional reserve currencies.

The shift out of dollars has gone into two primary directions: one-quarter into the Chinese renminbi and three-quarters into smaller, nontraditional reserve currencies. The renminbi's share has grown, but remains small compared to the dollar, while the rise of currencies like the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc contributes significantly to this diversification. The euro, pound sterling, and yen have not significantly increased their reserve shares.

Key drivers identified for this diversification include:

1. Increased liquidity in nontraditional forex markets due to technology, reducing transaction costs compared to the dollar.
2. Growing investment tranches in central bank portfolios, pushing reserve managers to seek higher-yielding alternatives as returns on traditional currencies fell.
3. Attractive risk-return profiles (measured by Sharpe ratios) of nontraditional currencies relative to traditional ones, partially due to lower interest rates in advanced economies and effective currency management.

The trend is broad-based, with 46 nations identified as "active diversifiers" holding at least 5% of their reserves in nontraditional currencies. This suggests that while policy initiatives like renminbi internationalization matter, market forces and technological changes have fostered a gradual but steady erosion of dollar dominance.

Future implications suggest that if dollar dominance diminishes, it may be due to a broad diversification away from the "Big Four" currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP), rather than an inevitable decline to a single alternative. Geographic spread in forex markets, enhanced by technology, has reduced the transaction costs of dealing in diverse currencies, further dissipating the past role of the dollar as a "netting currency."