2025-06-16-花旗集团-中国制药与生物技术_隐藏的BD价值2.0——授权许可趋势延续并伴有近期催化剂_16页_264kb

Citigroup Research: China Pharma & Biotech Out-Licensing Trends

Key Points

1. Market Rally

   • The China Pharma & Biotech sector has seen a rally driven by recent out-licensing events, with the May 20th 3Sbio-Pfizer deal (up to $18 billion) setting a new record and alleviating some geopolitical concerns.
   • The report emphasizes the continuation of the out-licensing trend as a key investment driver.

2. Top Companies by BD Value

   • Ascletis leads the pack with a BD-to-MKT cap ratio of 5.71x, followed by Henlius (2.04x), Abbisko (2.04x), Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1.99x), and Luye Pharma Group (1.64x).
   • These ratios are calculated based on disclosed pipelines and public transactions without assumptions, offering a direct comparison of deal potential.

3. Out-Licensing Growth

   • China’s out-licensing transactions (2019–YTD 2025) have surged from $10 billion in 2019 to $80 billion in 2025, growing both in transaction amounts and volume.
   • China now contributes ~50% of global out-licensing value and ~40% of transactions.

Innovative Pipeline Potential

• Key Modalities Analyzed: ADCs (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), small molecules, bispecific antibodies, PROTACs, siRNAs, and RNA therapeutics.
• Notable Deals/Candidates:
  • Ascletis: ASC30 (GLP-1 RA) with Roche ($5.3 billion).
  • Henlius: HLX43 (PD-L1 ADC) collaboration with BMS ($8.4 billion).
  • Junshi Biosciences: JS207 (PD-1/VEGF bispecific) with Pfizer ($6 billion).

Catalysts for Future Growth

• Geopolitical Easing: Recent deals with American buyers signal reduced tension concerns.
• Product Focus: GLP-1 drugs for metabolic diseases, ADCs for oncology, and innovative biologics with partners like Roche, BMS, Pfizer, and Novartis.

Recommendations

• Ascletis and Henlius are highlighted as having the highest BD-to-MKT cap ratios, indicating strong potential for unexplored deal value.
• Junshi Biosciences and Abbisko also show significant upside with their emerging pipelines.

For further details, refer to the full analysis.