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报告摘要

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary (April 2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides the April 2017 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for U.S. and Mexican sugar and sweeteners markets. It outlines projections for production, imports, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks, along with market fundamentals and price trends.

U.S. Sugar Market Outlook

Total Sugar Supplies and Use

Total sugar supplies (2016/17): 14.022 million STRV, an increase of 15,000 STRV from March.
Total use (2016/17): 12.380 million STRV, up 50,000 STRV from March.
Ending stocks (2016/17): 1.642 million STRV, a decrease of 35,000 STRV from March, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.26% (down from 13.60%).

Production Projections

Total U.S. sugar production: 8.840 million STRV, a 135,000 STRV decline from March.
- Beet sugar production: 4.996 million STRV, down 110,000 STRV from March, driven by increased sugarbeet shrink.
- Cane sugar production: 3.844 million STRV, down 25,000 STRV from March, primarily due to a 21,000 STRV decline in Florida.
Sugarbeet shrink: Increased to 7.0%, affecting overall sugar extraction.
Sugar extraction rate: Slightly lower at 13.8% for sliced beets, down from 13.9%.
Beet sugar deliveries: 41.8% of total domestic use, a notable increase from the previous year’s 38.4% and a return to levels seen between 2008/09 and 2012/13.

Imports and Exports

Total imports: 3.128 million STRV, up 150,000 STRV from March, driven by re-export program imports (375,000 STRV).
Imports under quota programs: 1.576 million STRV, unchanged from March.
Exports: Projected at 125,000 STRV, up 50,000 STRV from March, linked to increased imports under the re-export program.
Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico: Unchanged at 995,000 MT.
Exports to other countries: Reduced by 257,000 MT due to lower production and higher domestic use.

Mexico Sugar Market Outlook

Total Sugar Supplies and Use

Total sugar supplies (2016/17): 7.298 million MT, a 170,000 MT reduction from March.
Sugar production (2016/17): 6.186 million MT, a 184,000 MT reduction from March, but a 1.1% increase over 2015/16.
Total use (2016/17): 6.005 million MT, up slightly from March.
Ending stocks (2016/17): 1.293 million MT, a 15,000 MT increase from March, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 29.0% (down slightly from 29.1%).

Domestic Deliveries and Exports

Domestic deliveries (2016/17): 4.461 million MT, up 73,000 MT from March, driven by increased human consumption.
Exports: Projected at 1.163 million MT, down 257,000 MT from March.
Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico: Unchanged at 995,000 MT.
Exports to other countries: Reduced by 257,000 MT, due to lower production and higher domestic use.

Honey Market Outlook

Production and Prices

U.S. honey production (2016): 161.9 million pounds, a 3.4% increase from 2015, due to an increase in bee colonies.
Bee colonies (2016): 2.775 million, a 4.3% increase from 2015, the highest since 1994.
Honey yields: 58.3 pounds per colony, a 0.9% decrease from 2015, but consistent with the past 5 years.
National average honey prices (2016): 207.5 cents per pound, a 0.4% decrease from 2015, marking the second consecutive year of decline.
Prices have plateaued since 2014, despite remaining higher than historical levels.

Imports and Supplies

Honey imports (2016): 367 million pounds, a 5.0% decline from 2015.
Imports as a share of total supplies: 64.3%, down from 66.1% in 2015, but still reflecting a long-term trend of increasing foreign supply.
Top foreign suppliers (2016): Vietnam (30.5%), Argentina (17.6%), India (15.4%), Brazil (12.6%), and Canada (9.7%), totaling 81% of imports.
Imports from non-reporters: 7.4% higher than 2015/16 through February, contributing to 9.3% of total human consumption deliveries.

Key Trends and Factors

U.S. beet sugar production: Lowered due to increased sugarbeet shrink, influenced by warmer-than-average temperatures in the Red River Valley.
Cane sugar production: Declined in Florida and Texas, but stable in Louisiana and Hawaii.
Re-export program: Significantly boosted U.S. imports and exports, with the price differential between beet and cane sugar sectors contributing to market divergence.
Mexico sugar production: Lower than March, but still 1.1% higher than 2015/16.
Market divergence: Continued between beet and cane sugar, with beet sugar deliveries rising and cane sugar deliveries declining.
Honey market: Showed recovery in production but faced declining prices, with Vietnam remaining the largest supplier.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market for 2016/17 shows a reduced domestic production, but increased imports under the re-export program and higher use have led to a decline in ending stocks. Mexico’s sugar production is down from March, but domestic use has increased, reducing exports. The beet-cane divergence remains, but there is a trend toward stabilization. The U.S. honey market recovered slightly in 2016 with higher production and declining imports, though prices have plateaued after years of growth.