国际战略研究中心-2021年太空威胁评估（英文）-2021.4-41页_9mb

Summary of the 2021 SPACE THREAT ASSESSMENT

Introduction

The 2021 SPACE THREAT ASSESSMENT highlights the continued development and testing of counterspace capabilities by various nations, despite the global challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The report focuses on the types of counterspace weapons, their implications, and the strategic activities of key countries such as China, Russia, and others. It also emphasizes the importance of space as a critical enabler of both economic and military power, and the growing need for international cooperation and norms to ensure its peaceful use.

Types of Counterspace Weapons

Counterspace weapons are categorized into four broad groups based on their effects and deployment methods:

Kinetic Physical

• Description: These weapons attempt to strike or detonate a warhead near a satellite or ground station.
• Main Forms:
  • Direct-ascent ASAT: Launched from Earth to strike a satellite in orbit.
  • Co-orbital ASAT: Placed into orbit and then maneuvered to target a satellite.
  • Ground Station Attacks: Targeting terrestrial sites that control or relay satellite data.
• Effects:
  • Irreversible damage to systems.
  • Can produce orbital debris, which affects other satellites.
  • High visibility and attribution possible.
• Reversibility: Irreversible.

Non-Kinetic Physical

• Description: These weapons have physical effects on satellites or ground systems without direct contact.
• Main Forms:
  • Lasers: Can dazzle or blind satellite sensors, or cause overheating.
  • High-Powered Microwaves (HPM): Disrupt satellite electronics, corrupt data, or cause permanent damage.
  • Nuclear Detonations: Create high radiation and EMP effects, potentially affecting satellites in the affected orbital regime.
• Effects:
  • Can cause satellites to become disabled or uncontrollable.
  • Collateral damage includes radiation effects and potential long-term degradation.
• Reversibility: Varies; some attacks are irreversible.
• Attribution: Limited to none, depending on the method used.

Electronic

• Description: Target the electromagnetic spectrum used by space systems for communication.
• Main Forms:
  • Uplink Jamming: Interferes with signals from Earth to satellites.
  • Downlink Jamming: Interferes with signals from satellites to Earth.
  • Spoofing: Tricks receivers into believing a fake signal is real.
• Effects:
  • Disrupts communications and data flow.
  • Can be used to inject false information or issue false commands.
• Reversibility: Reversible.
• Attribution: Modest, depending on the method used.
• Awareness: Satellite operators are usually aware, but public knowledge is limited.

Cyber

• Description: Target the data and systems that manage, transmit, or control satellite operations.
• Main Forms:
  • Data Intercept/Monitoring: Gathers or monitors satellite data.
  • Data Corruption: Introduces false or corrupted data into a system.
  • Seizure of Control: Takes over satellite command and control systems.
• Effects:
  • Can result in loss of data or services.
  • May cause permanent damage if systems are taken over.
• Reversibility: Varies; some attacks are irreversible.
• Attribution: Limited or uncertain, as attackers can conceal their identity.
• Awareness: Satellite operators are usually aware, but public knowledge is limited.

Key Nations and Their Counterspace Activities

China

• Space Organization:
  • Space assets and missions are managed under the Strategic Support Force (SSF), which oversees cyber, electronic, and space operations.
  • The SSF includes the Space Systems Department and Network Systems Department, which are semi-independent and share joint counterspace missions.
• Counterspace Weapons:
  • Kinetic Physical: China continues testing its SC-19 direct-ascent ASAT system. The inspector satellite, Shijan-17 (SJ-17), performed several RPOs in GEO, suggesting potential for co-orbital ASAT capabilities.
  • Non-Kinetic Physical: Rumored to have developed ground-based laser stations. One military base is suspected to house a laser weapon system, though its readiness is unclear.
  • Electronic: Rumored to have deployed satellite jammers near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, possibly to mask PLA movements.
  • Cyber: No recent public cyberattacks against U.S. or other space systems, but continues to be active in cyber operations in other domains.

Russia

• Space Organization:
  • Military space capabilities are under the Russian Aerospace Forces (RAF), which includes the Russian Space Force, established in 1992 as the world's first space force.
  • Civil space activities are managed by Roscosmos, a long-time partner with NASA and the ISS.
• Counterspace Weapons:
  • Conducted multiple antisatellite (ASAT) tests, including a co-orbital ASAT in July 2020 and a direct-ascent ASAT in December 2020.
  • Demonstrated complex rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs) in GEO.
  • Maintained a steady pace of space launch capabilities despite the pandemic.

Other Nations

• India: Successfully tested direct-ascent ASAT weapons.
• Iran: Has space launch capabilities and is developing counterspace weapons.
• North Korea: Also has space launch capabilities and is exploring counterspace technologies.
• France, Israel, Japan, South Korea, United Kingdom: Have limited but growing counterspace capabilities, with some focusing on electronic and cyber means.

What to Watch

• Space Debris: Continued use of kinetic and non-kinetic weapons may increase the risk of orbital debris, which can threaten other satellites.
• Emerging Technologies: The development of laser and HPM systems, as well as cyber capabilities, is a growing concern.
• Space Militarization: The increasing militarization of space, particularly through the expansion of the U.S. Space Force and the continued development of counterspace capabilities by other nations, raises the risk of conflict in the space domain.
• International Cooperation: The need for international norms and cooperation to prevent the militarization of space and protect the domain for peaceful uses is emphasized.

Conclusion

The 2021 SPACE THREAT ASSESSMENT underscores the strategic importance of space and the growing capabilities of nations to threaten it. While the U.S. has continued to develop its space doctrine and force, other nations such as China and Russia are also advancing their counterspace technologies. The report highlights the risks associated with these developments, including the creation of orbital debris and the potential for conflict, and calls for increased awareness and international cooperation to ensure space remains a safe and open domain.