战略与国际研究中心-Space-Threat-Assessment-2018_44页_11mb

报告摘要

2018 Space Threat Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Aerospace Security Project (ASP), assesses the growing threats to U.S. space capabilities from various countries, including China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and others. It outlines the types of counterspace weapons, their effects, and the strategic implications of these threats for national security and military operations.

Main Viewpoints

Space is a critical domain for national power and security, with the U.S. relying heavily on space-based systems for military operations, intelligence, and economic activities.
Counterspace threats are becoming more sophisticated and diverse, ranging from kinetic and non-kinetic physical attacks to electronic and cyber attacks.
The U.S. must invest in space resilience and countermeasures to protect its space systems, as adversaries are increasingly developing capabilities to challenge or destroy these systems.
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are the primary nations with the most significant counterspace capabilities, with China being the most advanced.
The U.S. is not immune to these threats, as its space systems are vulnerable to a wide range of attacks, including jamming, spoofing, and cyber intrusions.

Key Information

Types of Counterspace Weapons

Kinetic Physical
- These weapons attempt to strike satellites or ground stations directly or detonate a warhead near them.
- Examples include direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles and co-orbital ASAT weapons.
- Direct-ascent ASAT weapons are launched from the ground and target satellites in orbit.
- Co-orbital ASAT weapons are first placed into orbit and then maneuvered to strike targets.
- Guidance and targeting systems are essential for these weapons to be effective.
Non-Kinetic Physical
- These weapons can damage satellites without physical contact, using lasers, high-powered microwaves (HPM), and nuclear weapons.
- Lasers can damage satellite components or dazzle sensors.
- HPM can disrupt electronics, corrupt data, and cause permanent damage.
- Nuclear weapons in space create electromagnetic pulses and radiation that degrade satellite components over time.
Electronic
- These attacks target radio frequency (RF) signals used by satellites to transmit and receive data.
- Jamming interferes with communications and is often reversible.
- Spoofing involves tricking receivers into believing false signals are real, potentially allowing control over satellites.
Cyber
- Cyberattacks target data and systems used by space systems.
- They can monitor data traffic, insert false data, or cause system-wide disruptions.
- Cyberattacks are cost-effective and difficult to attribute, as attackers can use hijacked servers or other methods to conceal their identity.

China

Space Capabilities: China is a major space power with a strong record in crewed space flights, two space stations, lunar missions, and a global satellite navigation system.
Space Organization and Doctrine: In 2015, China established the Strategic Support Force (SSF) to coordinate space and cyber warfare activities.
Counterspace Weapons: China has tested direct-ascent ASAT weapons, notably the SC-19 system, and has conducted successful tests such as the 2007 ASAT test, which destroyed a satellite and created hazardous debris in low Earth orbit (LEO).
Co-Orbital Capabilities: China has developed and tested co-orbital ASAT technologies, such as the BX-1 and SJ-12 satellites, which demonstrated proximity maneuvers and potential for future counterspace operations.

Russia

Space Capabilities: Russia has a long history in space exploration and continues to develop its space systems.
Space Organization and Doctrine: Russia has integrated space into its military doctrine, viewing it as a critical domain for strategic advantage.
Counterspace Weapons: Russia has tested various ASAT systems and is developing capabilities to disrupt U.S. space assets.

Iran and North Korea

Iran: Iran has limited but growing space capabilities and is likely developing counterspace technologies to challenge U.S. systems.
North Korea: North Korea has limited space capabilities but is actively developing space-related technologies, including potential ASAT systems.

Others

Counterspace capabilities are also being developed by other countries and non-state actors.
Commercially available jamming devices and cyber tools can be used to disrupt U.S. space systems, often with limited detection and attribution challenges.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the increasing threat to U.S. space systems from kinetic, non-kinetic, electronic, and cyber attacks. It calls for urgent action and increased investment to enhance the resilience of U.S. space capabilities. The main adversaries are identified as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, with China being the most advanced in counterspace technology. The report serves as an unclassified reference for policymakers and the public, highlighting the need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to space security.