2024-08-18-世界银行-拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的公共支出政策_当周期性遇到僵化时（英）_126页_5mb

Summary of "Public Spending Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Cyclicality Meets Rigidities"

This report examines the unique characteristics of public spending policies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) compared to high-income countries, focusing on issues of procyclicality and rigidities. Public spending in LAC is often procyclical, increasing during economic booms due to factors like political pressures and limited borrowing capacity, and demonstrates downward rigidity, failing to contract during busts. This behavior exacerbates economic volatility, limits fiscal space for countercyclical policies, and often involves inefficient spending that hampers long-term growth and development.

Key findings highlight the role of labor market informality, which undermines automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance, forcing policymakers to rely on rigid social transfers such as conditional cash transfers (CCTs). These transfers grow during downturns but are difficult to reduce afterward, contributing to escalating government expenditure. Procyclical public consumption in good times and countercyclical spending in bad times create unsustainable fiscal paths, with adjustments frequently targeting public investment and pensions, negatively affecting productivity and inclusive growth.

The report underscores that inefficiencies in public spending, such as poor allocation and leakage, must be addressed alongside cyclicality issues. Policy recommendations include implementing expenditure rules (e.g., caps on spending growth) to control procyclicality, enhancing fiscal institutions for better monitoring and enforcement, improving the efficiency of public goods delivery through data-driven reforms, and designing flexible social protection systems. Protecting essential investments and pensions is crucial, but this requires investment-friendly fiscal rules and mechanisms to shield them from retrenchment. Ultimately, better management of cyclical pressures can support fiscal sustainability and foster resilient, inclusive growth in LAC economies.