世界银行-拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的公共支出政策：当周期性遇到僵化时（英）-2024-126页_3mb

Public Spending Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Cyclicality Meets Rigidity

This report by the World Bank analyzes the fiscal policy challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and emphasizes that the region's public spending policies are procyclical and rigid, exacerbating economic volatility and hindering sustainable growth.

Main Findings

Chapter 1: Public Spending in Low- and Middle-Income Markets

• LAC countries exhibit procyclical public spending patterns, increasing expenditure during economic booms and struggling to reduce it during downturns.
• Social transfers (transfers and insurance) account for ~32% of total expenditure in LAC vs. ~54% in high-income countries, reflecting lower automatic stabilizer coverage and heavier reliance on discretionary spending.
• Inefficiencies are widespread, with estimates suggesting ~4.4% of GDP in LAC is lost to leakages (procurement, wages, subsidies), compared to ~4.1% in health spending.

Chapter 2: Good Times, Procyclical Policies

• Public consumption is semiprocyclical with strong output elasticity during expansions, driven by political economy factors and institutional weaknesses.
• Good times see increased public wages and employment, creating downward rigidities that limit fiscal space during downturns.
• Social transfers (along with public consumption) remain elevated during economic recoveries, contributing to fiscal imbalances.

Chapter 3: Bad Times and Automatic Stabilizers

• The region relies on downwardly rigid social transfers (like conditional cash transfers) during recessions due to limited/universal unemployment insurance coverage.
• About <30% of LAC countries have effective automatic stabilizers, compared to near-universal coverage in high-income countries.
• Hand-to-mouth households (~47% in LAC vs. ~24% in high-income countries) amplify social transfer multipliers but these effects wane over time.

Chapter 4: Something Has to Give

• Procyclical biases: public consumption increases during booms and remains rigid during busts; public investment decreases sharply during downturns.
• Cutting public investment in low-capital stock countries yields substantial positive multipliers (~$2 return per dollar invested), while neglecting it damages long-term growth.
• Pension spending remains procyclical due to missing formula-based indexation, hurting vulnerable populations during economic contractions.

Chapter 5: Policy Prescriptions

• Adopt expenditure rules (ERs) targeting specific categories rather than overall spending to control procyclicality.
• Strengthen independent fiscal institutions for monitoring and enforcement.
• Reform pension systems with automatic indexation formulas and improve automatic stabilizers.
• Prioritize investment-friendly rules and enhance procurement efficiency to capture quick savings (~15-22% estimated through process improvements).

The report concludes that LAC countries should move from "butcher's knife" fiscal policies (untargeted spending adjustments) to "surgeon's scalpel" approaches (precision fiscal tools), balancing short-term stabilization with long-term growth considerations.

Source: World Bank Report "Public Spending Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Cyclicality Meets Rigidities" (2024)