联合国：2021年经济初步概览（拉丁美洲和加勒比地区）_EN__37页_4mb

Summary of the 2021 Economic Overview of Latin America and the Caribbean

Core Content

The 2021 economic overview of Latin America and the Caribbean highlights a mixed performance with significant disparities between developed and developing economies. The region's growth was driven by consumption, supported by exports and public investment, but faces structural challenges in sustaining this growth due to low investment and productivity, slow employment recovery, and persistent social impacts from the pandemic.

Main Points

Growth and Recovery

• The region grew by 6.2% in 2021, with 2.1% projected for 2022, reflecting a slower recovery compared to the previous year.
• Consumption was the main driver of growth in 2021, bolstered by exports and GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation).
• Remittances increased by 30% in 2021, continuing to be a significant source of external resources for the region.

External Context and Risks

• Global growth is expected to slow in 2022, with the United States and China leading the slowdown.
• Trade growth is projected to decrease from 10.8% in 2021 to 4.7% in 2022.
• Commodity prices rose sharply in 2021 but are expected to stabilize in 2022.
• The region faces inflationary pressures, particularly from food and energy, which are expected to persist.
• Exchange rate volatility remains a risk, with many currencies depreciating against the US dollar in 2021.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Asymmetries

• Advanced economies have implemented larger fiscal stimulus and maintained lower interest rates, while emerging economies have seen larger interest rate hikes.
• Fiscal deficits are expected to narrow in 2021 and 2022 due to reduced public spending and stable revenues.
• Public debt remains high, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, with fiscal sustainability becoming a key challenge.

Employment and Inequality

• Employment recovery is slower than economic activity, with 30% of jobs lost in 2020 not recovered in 2021.
• Gender inequality worsened in 2021, with women disproportionately affected by job losses and the burden of care.
• Unemployment rates are projected to decrease slightly in 2022, but remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Investment and Productivity

• Low investment and productivity are major structural issues that limit the region's ability to sustain long-term growth.
• Public investment should be directed towards strategic sectors such as clean energy, digital infrastructure, mobility, and care, to promote employment and gender equality.
• Tax expenditures represent a significant portion of foregone revenues, averaging 3.7% of GDP, and should be evaluated to redirect funds towards productive and social priorities.

Policy Recommendations

• Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are essential to maintain growth and ensure monetary-financial stability.
• Fiscal space can be expanded through measures such as eliminating tax evasion, consolidating income taxes, and extending wealth and property taxes.
• The global minimum tax rate agreement (15%) is expected to generate additional tax revenues for several countries in the region, including Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru.
• Public-private partnerships and regulatory reforms are needed to improve tax compliance, legal certainty, and technological neutrality.

Key Information

• Vaccination rates in the region reached 60%, but there are significant disparities between countries.
• Advanced economies implemented $2.5 trillion in fiscal measures, compared to $330 billion in emerging markets.
• Interest rate hikes in emerging economies are a response to inflationary pressures and monetary policy normalization in developed countries.
• Public investment is crucial for long-term growth and should be used to crowd in private investment and support social development.
• Universalization of public services such as water, sanitation, and electricity is a strategic priority, with annual investment needs at 1.3% of GDP.
• Tax reforms and global minimum tax agreements are seen as tools to enhance fiscal sustainability and equitable resource distribution.

Conclusion

The region's economic recovery in 2021 was uneven, with growth slowing in 2022 due to external challenges, inflation, and structural issues. Fiscal and monetary policies must be coordinated to ensure sustainability and growth, while investment in strategic sectors and tax reforms are essential to address long-term challenges and reduce inequality.