东南亚漂浮式光伏市场技术评估-50页_5mb

Summary of FPV Technical Potential in Southeast Asia

Scope and Background

• The study assesses floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) technical potential across 10 Southeast Asian countries, focusing on reservoirs and natural waterbodies.
• FPV avoids land-use conflicts, leverages existing hydropower infrastructure, and supports renewable energy goals in the region.
• ASEAN aims for 35% renewable energy in installed capacity by 2025.

Key Assumptions and Methodology:

• Uses high-level geospatial assessment based on satellite data, filtering waterbodies by distance from shore, roads, and protected areas.
• Considers fixed-tilt monofacial and bifacial panels (bifacial increases capacity factors by ~5%).
• Excludes detailed environmental and economic analysis, providing upper-bound estimates.

Regional Technical Potential:

• Reservoirs: 134–278 GW (median ~278 GW under 50m/1km buffers)
• Natural Waterbodies: 343–768 GW (median ~343 GW under similar buffers)
• Total median potential across both water types: ~825 GW
• Average net capacity factors range from 15.6–16.8%

Country-Specific Highlights:

• Highest potential in Indonesia (9–15 GW combined) and Vietnam (70 GW combined)
• Higher reservoir potential in Laos and Malaysia; higher natural waterbody potential in Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand
• Brunei and Singapore show limited potential due to small size but remain viable for pilot projects

Limitations and Caveats:

• Results are upper-bound estimates due to lack of granular data (bathymetry, wind/waves, seasonal variations)
• Transmission constraints significantly impact natural waterbodies in some countries
• Environmental and regulatory barriers may limit actual deployment

Key Conclusions

• FPV represents a substantial opportunity to accelerate renewable energy deployment across Southeast Asia.
• Methodology applicable for similar studies in other regions with adaptations.
• Further site-specific and techno-economic analysis recommended.