世界银行-2025年4月南亚发展更新_税收时代（英）_113页_2mb

Summary of South Asia Development Update (April 2025)

Growth and Economic Outlook:

• South Asia’s growth prospects are diminishing, with most countries expected to grow at 5.8% in 2025, below previous forecasts. External risks, such as rising tariffs and global uncertainty, are challenged by the region’s limited trade openness and domestic fragilities.
• High government debt and fiscal pressures constrain resilience amid climate vulnerabilities, while intra-regional migration accounts for a small percentage of the working-age population but offers economic benefits through remittances and skills.

Revenue Mobilization:

• Government revenues average 18% of GDP in South Asia, well below the 24% average for other emerging markets. Tax shortfalls vary by country, with deficits ranging up to 7 percentage points of GDP above EMDE averages.
• Revenue losses are driven by widespread informality, large agriculture sectors, and limited financial development. Consumption taxes are particularly under-collected, though personal and corporate income taxes also show significant gaps.
• Policies to raise revenues include eliminating exemptions, streamlining tax codes, and improving tax administration. Pollution pricing (carbon or emissions taxes) could generate additional funds while addressing environmental challenges.

Climate Resilience:

• Rising global temperatures threaten output and incomes significantly, especially in agriculture. Autonomous adaptation by households and firms could offset one-third of climate damage, but government support is needed.
• Public investment in climate-resilient agriculture and infrastructure is critical. Countries like India and China’s experiences highlight the potential benefits of market-based mechanisms.

Migration and Diaspora Engagement:

• Skilled migration contributes to fiscal deficits but offers opportunities through knowledge transfer and remittances. Leveraging diaspora networks via bilateral agreements and return incentives remains a priority.
• Remittances are a vital income source, contributing significantly to fiscal stability and reducing poverty.

Policy Priorities:

• Strengthen tax administration through digitalization and enforcement to increase compliance.
• Promote pollution pricing to raise revenue and mitigate environmental damage.
• Enhance climate adaptation efforts, link economic reforms with sustainability goals, and tap into diaspora potential to boost inclusive growth.

South Asia must balance fiscal consolidation with adaptation investments to navigate risks and harness its demographic and economic potential.