世界银行-几内亚比绍经济更新_2025年春季_几内亚比绍的税收表现（英）_55页_3mb

Summary of Guinea-Bissau Economic Update - Spring 2025

Core Content

Guinea-Bissau's economy showed resilience in 2024, with real GDP growth of 4.8 percent, slightly above the 2023 level but below the country's potential. The growth was driven by strong performance in the services sector and secondary sector activities, particularly in manufacturing and construction, which benefited from ongoing infrastructure projects.

Despite this growth, the country faced challenges, including a weakened cashew campaign and adverse weather conditions, which reduced production and affected the primary sector. However, increased farmgate prices for cashews and improved subsistence agriculture output partially offset these negative impacts.

Main Economic Developments

1.1 Real Sector

• GDP Growth: 4.8% in 2024, slightly above 2023's 4.4%, but below the potential of 5.5%.
• Primary Sector:
  • Cashew production fell from 250,000 tons in 2023 to 240,100 tons in 2024 due to weather and marketing issues.
  • Farmgate prices rose significantly from CFCA $200/kg to CFCA $560/kg.
  • Subsistence agriculture output improved due to favorable weather and reduced pest activity.
• Secondary Sector:
  • Output grew by 8% between 2023 and 2024, driven by manufacturing (especially agri-food) and construction.
  • Electricity, gas, and water distribution increased by 6.2% y/y.
• Tertiary Sector:
  • Strong growth (+4.2% y/y) due to retail and hospitality activities.
  • The sector remains the main driver of economic growth, contributing 44% of GDP.

1.2 Fiscal and Debt Dynamics

• Fiscal Deficit: Reduced to 7.3% of GDP in 2024 from 8.2% in 2023.
• Public Debt: Increased to 82.3% of GDP in 2024.
• Revenue and Grants:
  • Tax revenue was 8.2% of GDP in 2024, significantly below the WAEMU convergence criteria.
  • The gap was filled by donor grants.
• Expenditure Cuts: Helped reduce the deficit.
• Debt Financing: Mainly through treasury securities and the IMF's Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

1.3 External Sector

• Current Account Deficit (CAD): Increased slightly to 8.5% of GDP in 2024 from 8.3% in 2023.
• Export Dependency: Cashew nuts account for over 80% of exports, with most going to India.
• Trade in Services: Limited to tourism in the Bijagós islands.

1.4 Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

• Inflation: Moderated to an average of 3.8% in 2024 from 7.2% in 2023.
• Food Inflation: Rose to 5% in December 2024 due to increased import prices, suspension of rice subsidies, and fuel tax reversals.
• Regional Foreign Reserves: Improved to cover 4.7 months of imports in 2024, up from 3.5 months in 2023.

Tax Performance and Expenditure

1.1 Revenue Structure and Performance

• Tax Mix: Reliance on indirect taxes (trade levies and sales taxes) is high, contributing over half of total revenues.
• Tax Efficiency: Direct taxes (CIT and PIT) are low, contributing only 1.5% and 0.7% of GDP respectively.
• VAT Introduction: A key reform in 2025, aiming to broaden the tax base and improve compliance.

1.2 Transition from Sales Taxes to VAT

• VAT Implementation: Launched in January 2025, with early results showing CFCA 6 billion in revenue (0.4% of GDP), 150% higher than under the IGV system.
• Exemptions: Need rationalization, including exemptions for natural gas, private education, health care, and fee-based financial services.

1.3 Tax Expenditures

• Border Exemptions: Account for nearly 1% of GDP annually.
• Overlaps: Many exemptions overlap with broader investment code benefits, creating loopholes.
• Key Exemptions: Diesel and cement relief accounted for 20% of total exemptions, highlighting concentration of fiscal costs.

Key Challenges and Risks

• Climate Shocks: Affect agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure.
• Global Trade Policy Shifts: Could reduce export volumes and remittances.
• SOEs and Financial Sector Weaknesses: May generate contingent liabilities.
• Political Uncertainty: Threatens fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.
• Debt Sustainability: Risks from short-term treasury securities and interest rate exposure.

Outlook and Recommendations

Economic Outlook

• Growth Projection: Expected to average 5.1% over 2025-2028.
• Inflation: Projected to decline to 2.0% by 2028.
• Poverty Reduction: Expected to see a gradual decline in extreme poverty incidence from 27.8% in 2024 to 23.3% by 2027.
• CAD: Projected to narrow to 4% of GDP by 2028 due to cashew recovery, lower import prices, and regional trade integration.

Policy Recommendations

Conclusion

Guinea-Bissau's economic performance in 2024 was mixed, with growth supported by the services and secondary sectors, but hindered by challenges in the primary sector. The transition to VAT is a positive step, but structural reforms and improved tax administration are critical to enhancing revenue mobilization and fiscal sustainability. The outlook is favorable, but risks such as climate change, global economic shifts, and political instability remain. Implementing the proposed reforms is essential for long-term economic stability and poverty reduction.