20161213-兴业证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_13页_1mb

报告摘要

SSE Composite: Closed at 3155.04, up 0.07%.
SZSE Component: Closed at 10332.28, up 0.29%.
ChiNext Index: Closed at 1985.04, up 0.03%.
HSI: Closed at 22410.40, down 0.10%.
HSCEI: Closed at 9693.90, down 0.06%.
Total Market Volume: CNY 457.98 billion (USD 66.37 billion), down 29.7% from previous session.
Performance: Winners outnumbered losers by 1655-to-1024.

China Stocks Rebound: After a previous retreat, stocks rebounded due to blue chip and SOE stocks regaining momentum.
Industrial Output: Increased by 6.2% YoY in November, up from 6.1% in October.
Liquidity Concerns: Limited liquidity persisted in equity, bond, and money markets, raising concerns about mid- and short-term outlook.

Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry: Strong performance, with Petrochina (601857) up 1.85% and Sinopec Shanghai (600688) up 4.40%.
Steel Makers: Bullish due to SOE reform speculation, with Baoshan Iron & Steel (600009) up 4.20% and Wuhan Iron & Steel (600005) up 3.27%.
Agriculture Shares: Outperformed due to supply-side reforms, with Heilongjiang Agriculture (600598) up 8.28% and Yuan Longping (000998) up 7.11%.
Other Sectors: Ministry, food & beverage, and building material sectors also outperformed.

Banks: Suffered corrections, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) down 1.51% and China Merchants Bank (600036) down 1.92%.

Trade Data: China's dollar export and import growth reached 0.1% and 6.7% YoY in November, respectively, with a trade surplus of USD 44.6 billion.
Policy Updates:
- China extended the annual working days for coal mines to ease supply shortages.
- CIRC to hold a meeting with insurers in Beijing on December 13.
- China initiated WTO dispute settlement procedures to address the analogue-country model.
Economic Outlook:
- Export growth may be temporary due to seasonal factors and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Long-term export and import growth are expected to face headwinds from Trump's trade protectionism and European political instability.

Market Slump: Reduced liquidity and regulatory tightening led to market slumps.
Opportunities Expected in Q2: Stimulating policies and increased risk tolerance may create opportunities.
Investment Targets:
- Banks: Strong fundamentals and low holding positions.
- Blue Chips: Strong earnings growth in 2017, especially in home decoration and optical-communication.
- Black Horses: Improved demand and supply situations in sectors like military, petroleum equipment, and raw materials.
- Sectors Benefiting from Policies: Finance (debt-to-equity swaps) and infrastructure ("One Belt, One Road", PPP).

Rising Volatility in Liability: Financial institutions face increasing liquidity pressure due to FMPs and inter-financial-institution borrowing.
Repo and Shibor Rates:
- Inter-bank repo rates increased for longer terms, with 1-month repo rate rising to 4.23%.
- Exchange repo rates also increased, with 1-month at 4.04%.
Bond Yields:
- Treasury bond yields rose, especially for the 1-year segment.
- CDB bond yields also increased, with 1-year at 2.97%.
Credit Bonds: Yields for low-rated credit bonds increased, and trade volumes rose significantly.

Shibor Rates (2016/12/9):
- ON: 2.29% (down 3 bp)
- 1W: 2.49% (down 1 bp)
- 1M: 3.06% (up 14 bp)
- 3M: 3.13% (up 6 bp)
Interbank Repo Rates (2016/12/9):
- ON: 2.24% (down 8 bp)
- 1W: 2.57% (down 17 bp)
- 1M: 4.23% (up 118 bp)
Exchange Repo Rates (2016/12/9):
- ON: 2.74% (down 75 bp)
- 1W: 2.90% (down 25 bp)
- 1M: 4.04% (up 85 bp)

Industry Investment Rating:
- Overweight: Industry outperforms the market.
- Neutral: Industry performs similarly to the market.
- Underweight: Industry underperforms the market.
Company Investment Rating:
- Buy: Stock outperforms the market by more than 15%.
- Outperform: Stock outperforms by 5% to 15%.
- Neutral: Stock outperforms or underperforms by less than 5%.
- Underperform: Stock underperforms by more than 5%.

The report is based on public information and is not guaranteed in terms of accuracy or completeness.
The report is intended solely for the Company's clients and should not be used as an invitation to trade.
The Company reserves all rights to the report and prohibits unauthorized redistribution.

The analysts are certified professionals with due diligence and objective research methods.
The views expressed in the report reflect the analysts' personal opinions and are not influenced by external compensation.

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