2015年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Republic_of_Chad_for_the_Period_FY16-20_60页_1mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Chad (FY16-20)

Core Content

The World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Chad, covering the fiscal years 2016–2020, outlines the strategic support provided by the International Development Association (IDA), International Finance Corporation (IFC), and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) to the country's development agenda. The CPF succeeds the Interim Strategy Note (ISN) from 2010 and is aligned with Chad's National Development Plan (NDP) for 2013–2015, which was endorsed by the WBG and IMF.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Country Context and Development Agenda

• Social and Political Context:
  Chad is a landlocked country with a population of 13 million, facing significant development challenges due to historical instability, conflict, and climate change. These factors have hindered governance, economic growth, and human capital development. The country has a large informal sector, and many citizens, especially in rural areas, have limited access to education and healthcare.

• Poverty Profile:
  Chad has among the lowest Human Development Indicators (HDI) globally. In 2014, it ranked 184th out of 187 countries. Literacy rates are low, with 78% of young people and adults aged 15+ being illiterate, and 45% of children aged 6–24 never attending a modern school. Child and infant mortality rates are also high, with 133 and 72 deaths per 1,000 live births, respectively.

• Economic Developments:
  GDP growth was strong in 2013 and 2014 (5.7% and 6.9% respectively), driven by favorable weather and high oil prices. However, growth has been volatile and remains dependent on oil and climate conditions. The non-oil economy relies heavily on agriculture and services, which are vulnerable to external shocks.

• Key Challenges:

  • Climate change and population growth have intensified competition over land and resources.
  • Weak governance and poorly designed social programs have limited the impact of oil revenues on poverty reduction.
  • Regional conflicts and insecurity have affected trade, agriculture, and public services.
  • The country has experienced significant displacement, with over 700,000 internally displaced people and a large refugee population.

2. World Bank Group Partnership Strategy

• Selectivity Filters:
  The CPF is based on the Strategic Country Diagnostic (SCD), which identifies key constraints and feasible interventions to address them. These interventions align with the government's development program and the WBG's comparative advantage.

• Proposed CPF Strategy:
  The CPF focuses on three engagement themes:

  • Strengthening management of public resources: Improving fiscal transparency, accountability, and public financial management (PFM).
  • Improving returns to agriculture and building value chains: Enhancing productivity and competitiveness in the agricultural sector.
  • Building human capital and reducing vulnerability: Investing in education, health, and social protection.

• Fiscal and Debt Management:
  The CPF emphasizes fiscal consolidation, reducing the Non-Oil Primary Deficit (NOPD), and improving debt sustainability. The WBG supports the government's efforts to reduce public expenditures and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.

• IMF Program Support:
  The IMF has played a key role in supporting Chad's macroeconomic stability through the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program. The program includes a 3-year financial support plan, with a total disbursement of SDR 106.6 million. It aims to ensure fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability in the face of external shocks such as oil price fluctuations and regional insecurity.

3. Risks and Challenges

• Exogenous Shocks:
  Chad faces significant risks from external shocks, including a sharp decline in oil prices and increased regional insecurity. These shocks have led to a reduction in domestic revenues and a widening of the financing gap.

• Fiscal Adjustment:
  The government has implemented substantial expenditure cuts, including reductions in public investment and operating costs, to address the financing gap. These cuts have been focused on non-military sectors, with priority social spending maintained at 2014 levels.

• Debt Sustainability:
  Despite achieving the HIPC Completion Point in 2015, Chad remains vulnerable to external debt distress. The country's reliance on oil revenues and weak public financial management capacity continue to pose risks.

• Macroeconomic Outlook:
  The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing regional conflicts, climate variability, and the dependence on oil. These factors could lead to a fiscal and financial crisis if not managed effectively.

4. Key Indicators and Trends

• GDP Growth:

  • 2013: 5.7%
  • 2014: 6.9%
  • 2015: 4.1%
  • 2016: 2.6%
  • 2017: 6.1%
  • 2018: 6.5%
  • 2019: 6.4%

• Oil GDP:

  • 2013: -7.1%
  • 2014: 5.7%
  • 2015: 37.6%
  • 2016: 5.0%
  • 2017: 15.1%
  • 2018: 13.9%
  • 2019: 12.5%

• Consumer Price Index (CPI):

  • 2013: 0.2%
  • 2014: 1.7%
  • 2015: 4.6%
  • 2016: 3.3%
  • 2017: 3.0%
  • 2018: 3.0%
  • 2019: 3.0%

• External Debt (as % of GDP):

  • 2013: 21.2%
  • 2014: 30.8%
  • 2015: 26.4%
  • 2016: 24.3%
  • 2017: 21.1%
  • 2018: 19.3%
  • 2019: 16.8%

5. Implementation and Support

• The CPF is designed to support the implementation of Chad's Five-Year Development Plan (2016–2020).
• The WBG has continued to support Chad's development through its comparative advantage in public financial management, governance, and social development.
• The CPF emphasizes the need for continued fiscal consolidation, improved public resource management, and support for agriculture and human capital development.