20170713-三星证券-Tech_OVERWEIGHT__Semiconductor_supply_chain_still_solid_long_term_18页_627kb

报告摘要

Sector Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of the Korean semiconductor industry, focusing on the performance and future outlook of four key companies: Wonik IPS, TES, SK Materials, and Hansol Chemical. The report emphasizes the long-term growth prospects of the semiconductor supply chain and recommends maintaining BUY ratings for all four companies despite short-term corrections.

Main Points

Semiconductor Industry Outlook

The semiconductor supply chain remains strong in the long term due to ongoing industry upturn expected through end-2019.
Samsung Electronics (SEC) is expected to continue its expansion with the construction of five new fabrication plants (fabs) by 2019.
Tight supply conditions and delayed technological advancements by rivals are expected to drive investment increases in the sector.
The NAND market upturn is just beginning, with 3D NAND demand expected to grow, particularly with SEC's Pyeongtaek fab investment.

Short-Term Corrections

Shares of Korean semiconductor equipment and materials suppliers are likely to experience short-lived corrections.
These corrections are attributed to profit-taking after strong rallies in April, rather than a long-term bearish trend.
Investors should buy on any correction as long-term growth prospects remain positive.

Company-Specific Insights

Wonik IPS (240810 KS)

Target Price: KRW36,000 (+17.1% from current price)
Current Price: KRW30,200
2017 Sales Forecast: KRW637b
2018 Sales Forecast: KRW751.9b (+25.5% increase)
2017 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW131b
2018 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW167b (+23.3% increase)
EPS Growth: 2017E: KRW2,478 (up 2.1%), 2018E: KRW3,148 (up 23.8%)
P/E Ratio: 12.0x (2017E), 9.5x (2018E)
ROE: 37.9% (2017E), 33.6% (2018E)
Recommendation: BUY due to strong long-term growth potential in 3D NAND and system LSI equipment.

TES (095610 KS)

Target Price: KRW37,000 (+17.8% from current price)
Current Price: KRW30,050
2017 Sales Forecast: KRW264b
2018 Sales Forecast: KRW237b
2017 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW60b
2018 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW54.9b
EPS Growth: 2017E: KRW2,718 (+15.8% from previous forecast), 2018E: KRW2,992 (+2.0%)
P/E Ratio: 10.0x (2017E), 12.5x (2018E)
ROE: 30.8% (2017E), 26.3% (2018E)
Recommendation: BUY due to its role as a proxy for 3D NAND growth and expected strong 2Q results.

SK Materials (036490 KS)

Target Price: KRW230,000 (+21.5% from current price)
Current Price: KRW184,800
2017 Sales Forecast: KRW552b
2018 Sales Forecast: KRW555b (slight increase)
2017 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW164b
2018 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW173.1b (+5.4% increase)
EPS Growth: 2017E: KRW90 (+5.8% from previous forecast), 2018E: KRW95.6
P/E Ratio: 16.5x (2017E), 12.5x (2018E)
ROE: 27.7% (2017E), 32.1% (2018E)
Recommendation: BUY as earnings are expected to normalize from 3Q onwards.

Hansol Chemical (014680 KS)

Target Price: KRW95,000 (+28% from current price)
Current Price: KRW72,700
2017 Sales Forecast: KRW539b
2018 Sales Forecast: KRW566b (+4.8% increase)
2017 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW90b
2018 Operating Profit Forecast: KRW95.6b (+5.8% increase)
EPS Growth: 2017E: KRW90 (+5.8% from previous forecast), 2018E: KRW95.6
P/E Ratio: 13.2x (2017E), 10.7x (2018E)
ROE: 19.7% (2017E), 20.6% (2018E)
Recommendation: BUY as the company is expected to resume earnings growth from 3Q onwards.

Key Information

Market Cap: Wonik IPS: KRW1.2t / USD1.0b, TES: KRW617.88b / USD543.76m, SK Materials: KRW189,300, Hansol Chemical: KRW74,200
Float: Wonik IPS: 41,273,436 (66.6%), TES: 19,677,647 (68.5%)
52-Week High/Low: Wonik IPS: KRW31,550 / KRW20,700, TES: KRW31,400 / KRW16,850
Average Daily Trading Value (60-day): Wonik IPS: KRW7.9b / USD6.9m, TES: KRW12.6b / USD11.1m
Valuation Metrics:
- Wonik IPS: P/E (12.0x), P/B (2.7x), EV/EBITDA (5.7x)
- TES: P/E (10.0x), P/B (3.0x), EV/EBITDA (7.9x)
- SK Materials: P/E (16.5x), P/B (4.4x), EV/EBITDA (12.0x)
- Hansol Chemical: P/E (13.2x), P/B (2.4x), EV/EBITDA (10.0x)
Dividend Yield: All companies have a 0.0% dividend yield.
Investor Sentiment: Short-term selloffs are seen as profit-taking, not a long-term bearish trend.
Recommendation: Maintain BUY ratings on all four companies due to the prolonged industry upturn and positive growth outlook.

Summary

The semiconductor industry in South Korea is expected to continue its growth trajectory through 2019, driven by Samsung Electronics' expansion and tight supply conditions. Despite short-term corrections in share prices, the report highlights that these are likely to be temporary and that investors should consider buying on dips. The four companies—Wonik IPS, TES, SK Materials, and Hansol Chemical—are recommended to maintain BUY ratings due to their strong position in the supply chain and positive future performance. The report provides forecasts, target prices, and valuation metrics to support these recommendations.