2025-06-11-花旗集团-学院体育户外公司（ASO）_中小盘观点_10页_266kb

报告摘要

Recent Performance: 1Q25 results disappointing with comps and EPS below consensus. Management widened EPS guidance for F25 due to weaker macro conditions and higher tariffs.
Guidance: New comp range of -4% to +1% is viewed as more realistic; weak Q1/2QTD comps despite benefits from expanded Nike/Jordan assortment.
Upcoming Outlook: Q2 comps expected to improve sequentially as they benefit from last year's warehouse disruptions being lapped. Forward-looking uncertainties exist for 2H, but new stores, Nike/Jordan expansion, and RFID rollout could limit downside.
Valuation and Recommendation: Shares trade at ~10% FCF yield and 7.7x F25E P/E. Buy recommendation with target price $55.

Investor Day Highlights: Emphasized long-term growth strategy with potential for more durable earnings growth, supported by automation and machine vision demand.
Guidance and Uncertainties: Financial framework has a "show-me" element due to past muted performance and macro uncertainty; however, growth initiatives and capital deployment are expected to drive shareholder value.
Recommendation: Neutral rating with target price $30.

NB ODMs: May shipments +11% m/m, in-line with Citi expectations driven by tariff pull-ins; 2H25 outlook limited, with shipments expected flat to slightly up quarter-over-quarter.
Semiconductors: Notebook shipments up 7% q/q, slightly below seasonal norms. AMD and Intel face potential near-term positive impacts but maintain Neutral ratings due to forecasted volatility.
Paper & Packaging: Industry trends highlight opportunities, but no clear catalysts; Pettinari recommends caution on AMD and Intel.

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