2025-06-11-花旗集团-学院体育户外公司（ASO）_Academy_Sports_and_Outdoors公司（ASO.O）_2025财年开局动荡但仍有乐观理由_14页_703kb

Citi Research: Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO.O) - Fiscal Year 2025 Analysis

🔍 Investment Recommendation

• Action: Buy
• Target Price (TP): US$55.00 (implies F25E P/E of 9.5x, EV/EBITDA of 4.5x)
• Current Price: US$44.60
• Market Cap: ~US$2,970M
• Expected Total Return: 23.3%

📊 Financial Highlights (Fiscal Year 2025)

• F25 EPS Guidance: ~US$5.76
• F26E EPS: ~US$6.61
• F25E P/E Multiple: 7.7x (compared to current market price)
• F25E EV/EBITDA: 6.5x
• FCF Yield F25E: ~9.5%

📉 Reasons for EPS Widening Guidance

• 1Q25 Performance: YoY comps and EPS below consensus estimates, attributing to weaker 2H macro, higher tariffs, and lingering economic strain.
• Macro Uncertainty: Increasing economic pressure on sub-$50K income groups, limiting overall consumer spending.

📈 Optimism Drivers

• Nike Expansion: Larger topline impact in F25 due to Nike being ~12% of sales; potential +50bps comp benefit if Nike grows > segment average.
• Comps Recovery: 2Q comps easing sequentially from 1Q due to base effect from warehouse disruptions (80 stores affected, LGV ≈ −LSD in H1).
• Tech Rollout & Store Growth: New stores entering the comp base driving F2H improvement; RFID tech rollout expected to enhance operational efficiency.
• Valuation: Significant discount (F25E P/E <7.7; peers trade at higher multiples).

⚠️ Risks

• Persistent Consumer Weakness: Economic strain continuing into F25.
• Nike Turnaround Failure: Potential underperformance of the Jordan brand and Nike expansion.
• Promotional Intensity: Increased competition leading to pricing pressure.
• Out-of-Stock Issues: Worsening due to warehouse disruptions (resolved by 3Q24).
• Tariff Impact: Failure by management to mitigate higher tariffs on profitability.

💎 Summary Key Takeaways

• ASO is rated "Buy" with an attractive valuation at US$44.60, offering ~10% yield and F25E P/E at 7.7x.
• While 1Q guidance (revised lower) is dismissed due to temporary issues like warehouse disruptions, sequential improvement is anticipated in Q2.
• Key growth vectors: New stores, Nike assortment impact, and long-term potential of Jordan (though minimal immediate contribution).
• Downside risks center around ongoing macro weakness and promotional pressures.