2025-06-11-花旗集团-印第纺织（ITX）_印第纺织（ITX.MC）_2025年第一季度业绩符合预期_当前交易中固定汇率下增长6_自2025年第一季度末（不含闰年因素）未见加速迹象_13页_337kb

Inditex (ITX.MC) Citigroup Research Summary

1. Key Financial Results (1Q2025)

• Inditex posted first-quarter 2025 EPS of €0.42, in-line with consensus expectations.
• Sales were 0% to -1% compared to CITI and consensus estimates.
• Gross margin declined by 4 basis points to 60.6% year-over-year.
• Adj. EBIT margin dropped by 20 basis points to 19.8%.

2. Analyst Take

• CITI maintains a "Buy" recommendation with a target price of €56.
• Current trading shows no acceleration in performance from the end of Q1, implying a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction.
• Expected share price return for the period is 13.8%, with total expected return of 17.4%.

3. Outlook and Projections

• For FY2025, Inditex expects stable gross margins or a ±50 basis point change.
• Anticipated negative currency impact (-3%) on sales, with 5% gross space contribution in FY25 and FY26.
• Outlook unchanged, with focus on long-term growth through store optimization.

4. Risks and Valuation Notes

• Key risks include consumer cyclicality, supply chain issues, FX fluctuations, regulatory changes, IT failures, reputation risks, and significant family ownership.
• Target price based on FY2026 EPS, with a 23x long-term P/E multiple.
• Inventory position at end of Q1 was +6% YoY, not expected to drive material price movement.