那提西银行-美国-宏观经济-如果美国经济增长明显放缓，特朗普会怎么办？-20180413-6页_569kb

Flash Economics Summary: US Growth Slowdown and Trump's Response

Core Content

This document analyzes the potential slowdown in US economic growth and evaluates the likely responses of the Trump administration to such a scenario. It outlines the key factors contributing to the slowdown and assesses the effectiveness of various policy responses.

Main Factors Contributing to US Growth Slowdown

1. Return to Full Employment

   • The US unemployment rate is low, and the participation rate is stable, indicating the economy is approaching full employment.
   • This leads to a reduction in growth to the level of potential growth, as there is less room for expansion.

2. Investment Cycle

   • Corporate investment typically declines as growth slows, which may amplify the slowdown.
   • Chart 2 illustrates the relationship between growth and investment trends.

3. Monetary Policy Normalisation

   • The Federal Reserve is normalising its monetary policy, which could further slow growth.
   • Chart 3 shows Fed Funds futures contracts, reflecting expectations of policy tightening.

4. Deterioration in Household Solvency

   • US households are facing declining solvency, particularly in areas such as auto and mortgage loans.
   • Charts 4A and 4B highlight this trend.

Likely Responses by the Trump Administration

1. Further Fiscal Expansion

   • The administration may seek to increase fiscal spending to stimulate growth.
   • However, at full employment, this would likely worsen the trade balance (Chart 5B).

2. Increased Protectionist Policies

   • Protectionism could be ramped up, but it would have limited impact on growth and production at full employment.
   • The low substitutability between US imports and domestic production reduces the effectiveness of such policies (Chart 6).

3. Pressure on the Federal Reserve

   • The administration might push the Fed to halt monetary policy normalisation.
   • However, the Fed is expected to remain independent and ignore such pressure.

Conclusion

• The return to full employment, the investment cycle, monetary policy normalisation, and declining household solvency collectively suggest that a marked slowdown in US growth is likely.
• Any response from the Trump administration to this slowdown is expected to be ineffective:
  • Fiscal expansion would not significantly boost growth at full employment.
  • Protectionism would have limited impact on trade and production.
  • Pressure on the Fed would likely be ignored.

Key Information

• The administration has set ambitious growth forecasts (Table 1), but these may not be achievable due to the above-mentioned factors.
• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors and is not a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted for the information provided, and it is based on public data.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis or any of its affiliates.

Disclaimer Highlights

• The document is confidential and not to be disclosed to third parties without consent.
• It is not a financial analysis and does not comply with legal requirements for independent investment research.
• It does not constitute an offer or solicitation for any investment.
• No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• The views expressed are personal and may differ among authors.
• The document is subject to regulatory oversight in various jurisdictions, including the European Central Bank, ACPR, FCA, and BaFin.