深度报告-2025-11-05-UBS-UBS_Equities-Global_Equity_Strategy_US_exceptionalism_exceptional_or_no...-118348843_31页_2mb

UBS Global Equity Strategy Analysis: US Exceptionalism

Introduction

This report by UBS analyzes the concept of US exceptionalism in global equity markets, economy, and currency. It examines factors supporting the US as an equity market leader and reasons to moderate this view, while highlighting opportunities elsewhere. The summary is based on the October 2025 report.

Arguments for US Equities Outperformance

The US equity market demonstrates exceptionalism due to several key factors:

• AI Adoption: The US is well-suited for AI integration, with US tech accounting for about 82% of global tech market. AI contributed approximately 65 basis points to US GDP growth post-Q2. The US has looser labor regulations, potentially allowing faster AI implementation compared to other regions.
• Tech Performance: US tech companies, particularly the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7), outperform the broader market. Their P/E ratios are close to post-2018 norms (around a 40% premium to global markets), but earnings revisions remain strong, with better consensus earnings growth than non-tech sectors. Hyperscalers' capital expenditure (capex) is funded by cash flow, and while capex is high, concerns exist about AI developments like generative AI and circularity issues in vendor-financed deals.
• Global Growth Slowdown: When global GDP growth slows below 3.5% (UBS forecasts 2.9% in 2026), the US benefits from its low operational leverage, flexible labor market, and dovish Federal Reserve policies.
• Currency Factors: Despite some challenges, a weaker dollar can improve US earnings for multinational companies, though unhedged performance may lag. However, the dollar's valuation and high net foreign debt raise concerns.

Arguments Against Overweight US Equities

Several factors challenge the case for an overweight US position:

• Valuation Concerns: US stocks are expensive, with sector-adjusted P/E ratios up to 40% higher than global averages. Total yields are now lower than in Europe and Japan, and buyback yields have declined due to compressed spreads between earnings yields and corporate bond yields.
• Economic Risks: While US productivity and AI dominance remain strong, fiscal easing has reversed, immigration growth has slowed, and fiscal sustainability scores indicate a worse position than Europe or Japan. Currency interventions and tariffs pose short-term risks.
• Bubble and Margin Risks: US exceptionalism may stem partly from a bubble, requiring further examination of supporting preconditions. Many margin improvements are tied to low interest rates, which may not persist.

Global Equity Opportunities

Beyond US dominance, other regions show promise:

• Selective Opportunities: Companies like TSMC and Alibaba have outperformed Mag 7 peers year-to-date. Eighty-two percent of global sectors beat US counterparts in dollar terms. Europe demonstrates leadership in some tech areas due to market dominance and relative undervaluation compared to peers.
• Non-Tech Sector Performance: While tech dominates, non-tech sectors have seen broad-based outperformance globally.

Economic and Currency Exceptionalism

• US Economic Advantages: Structural strengths include superior productivity, AI implementation, labor flexibility, and a shareholder-friendly culture. However, advantages like fiscal easing, immigration, and long-term debt maturity are diminishing.
• Currency Exceptionalism Challenges: The dollar faces pressure from trade data, rate differentials, and high ownership (58% of global FX reserves). Tactically, a weaker dollar could support the US economy, but structural risks, like high net debt (about 80% of GDP), may limit this.

Conclusion

US economic exceptionalism persists structurally but with reduced intensity, driven by AI and productivity. Equity exceptionalism is debated, with high valuations offsetting some advantages. While the US remains a key equity market, risks and opportunities elsewhere warrant a balanced approach.