UBS_Equities-Global_Equity_Strategy_10_Surprises_for_2025_Garthwaite-113176779_59页_5mb

UBS Global Equity Strategy: Key Surprise Scenarios Summary
This report outlines 10 potential surprise scenarios that could disrupt the global equity market outlook for 2025. Each scenario includes a core view (central case) and a risk view, along with factors that could trigger the risk scenario and their potential impacts.

1. Tech Underperforms

• Core View: Tech outperforms, but selectively (e.g., software-focused).
• Risk: Tech underperforms due to:
  • Earnings/valuation pressures (e.g., earnings breadth narrows, valuation high but margins face risks).
  • Economic factors like stagflation or aggressive tariffs.
  • Valuation challenges from alternative tech (e.g., China’s role).
• Impact: Focus on Meta, MSFT, Amazon, and semis (ASML, Nvidia).

2. S&P 500 Bubbles

• Core View: S&P +6.5% by end-2025.
• Risk: Surprises like Gen AI productivity boosts or popu
• UBS Risks: Tech underperforms, bond yields rise, Euro weakens, Japan outperforms, oil prices fall, pharma rallies, China stimulus, potential Euro breakup.
• Impact: Invest selectively in software, pharma, consumer staples, and defensive sectors.

Instructions:

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