2007年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Quotas_54页_408kb

Summary of IMF Quotas—Updated Calculations and Data Adjustments (July 11, 2007)

I. Introduction

This document presents the updated data set for quota calculations through 2005, which will serve as the basis for discussions on quota and voice reforms. It also revisits the issue of data adjustments. The consideration of a broader range of specifications for a new quota formula is deferred to a subsequent paper.

II. The Data Set

• The updated data set covers the period through 2005, replacing the previous data set through 2004.
• Data sources include the International Financial Statistics (IFS) and the World Economic Outlook (WEO), with additional data from staff reports and country desk data where necessary.
• A common cutoff date of January 31, 2007, is used for incorporating new data to ensure consistency and transparency.
• Adjustments have been made for a subset of members with significant re-exports, international banking interest (IBI), and transactions in non-monetary gold.

III. Updated Quota Calculations

• The updated data set leads to changes in calculated quota shares, particularly increasing the share of developing and transition economies by about one percentage point compared to 2004 data.
• The impact varies by region: Asia sees the largest increase, followed by transition economies and the Middle East, Malta, and Turkey.
• The share of major advanced economies generally declines.
• The document provides comparisons under different quota formulas, including the existing five formulas and two linear specifications.

Key Tables

• Table 1: Summary of global shares for quota variables (GDP, Openness, Variability, Reserves, PPP-GDP, etc.) for major groups.
• Table 2: Distribution of quotas and calculated quotas under existing and linear formulas.
• Table 3: Distribution of quotas and calculated quotas using adjusted and unadjusted data.

IV. Data Adjustments

• Adjustments for re-exports, IBI, and non-monetary gold are based on the rationale that gross flows overstate economic size and importance.
• These adjustments have been applied in past quota reviews and are still considered necessary for the current round.
• Adjustments are made in close collaboration with area departments.
• The impact of these adjustments is more significant under existing formulas than under linear formulas, though still notable at the country level.
• For example, Singapore's quota share increases from 1.9% to 3.3% when adjustments are applied, while under the linear formula, the increase is smaller but still significant.

Methodology

• Re-exports: Adjusted using the UN Comtrade definition and a 20% threshold of total merchandise exports.
• International Banking Interest: Adjustments are based on the same practice as previous reviews.
• Non-Monetary Gold: Adjustments are considered reasonable and consistent with the current approach.

Adjustments Summary

• 30 members are affected by data adjustments.
• 18 members were adjusted for re-exports.
• 13 members (including G-10, Luxembourg, China, P.R., and Hong Kong SAR) were adjusted for IBI.
• 3 members (Japan, Switzerland, and the US) were adjusted for non-monetary gold transactions.

V. Issues for Discussion

• Directors are invited to comment on whether the practice of adjusting the quota database should continue.
• The document also asks whether this issue should be kept under close review in future discussions.

Key Points

• Data Sources: IFS and WEO are primary sources, with additional data from official reports and country desk data.
• Adjustments: Made for re-exports, IBI, and non-monetary gold to reflect the actual economic impact.
• Impact: Adjustments significantly affect quota shares for certain regions, particularly Asia and transition economies.
• Future Considerations: The role of data adjustments in a new quota formula is under review, and the staff proposes to continue them for the current reform round.