2006年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Quotas_31页_567kb

Summary of the IMF Quotas-Updated Calculations Document

I. Introduction

This document outlines the process of updating the data set used for quota calculations through 2004. The updated data serves as a foundation for potential quota adjustments leading up to the Annual Meetings. The paper is structured into three main sections: the introduction, the data set, and the updated quota calculations, with detailed methodologies and results presented in appendices.

II. The Data Set

The updated data set includes information for 184 members and is based on the following key variables:

• GDP (2002–2004)
• Current receipts (1992–2004)
• Current payments (2000–2004)
• Net capital flows (1992–2004)
• Official reserves (2004)

Data Sources

• The primary data sources are the International Financial Statistics (IFS) and the World Economic Outlook (WEO).
• Data from the Eleventh General Review of Quotas was also used where necessary.
• For missing data, estimates were made using WEO data, based on growth rates from comparable series.

Adjustments

• Adjustments were made for re-exports, international banking interest (IBI), and transactions in non-monetary gold.
• These adjustments were applied to ensure that quota calculations are not distorted by transactions that do not reflect a country’s economic size or openness.
• The adjustments affected 27 members, with:
  • 15 countries adjusted for re-exports
  • 13 countries (including G-10, Luxembourg, China, P.R., and Hong Kong SAR) adjusted for IBI
  • 3 countries (Japan, Switzerland, and the United States) adjusted for non-monetary gold transactions

III. Updated Quota Calculations

The updated quota calculations were based on the existing five formulas. The results are summarized in Table 1, which shows the distribution of quotas, calculated quotas, and updated variables across major country groups.

Key Findings

• Advanced economies had a calculated quota share of 67.1%, slightly lower than the previous 67.6%, but still well above their actual quota share of 61.6%.
• Transition economies saw an increase in their calculated quota share to 5.3%, up from 4.7%.
• Developing countries as a group showed little change in their calculated quota share, with Asia being the only subgroup that saw a decline, primarily due to adjustments in current receipts and re-exports.
• The United States had a calculated quota share of 47.3%, slightly lower than its previous 47.9%, but still higher than its actual quota share of 46.0%.
• Other advanced economies had a calculated quota share of 19.8%, up from 19.6%.

Quota Formula Overview

The five formulas used are:

1. Bretton Woods: $ Q_{1} = (0.01Y + 0.025R + 0.05P + 0.2276VC) \times (1 + C / Y) $
2. Scheme III: $ Q_{2} = (0.0065Y + 0.0205125R + 0.078P + 0.4052VC) \times (1 + C / Y) $
3. Scheme IV: $ Q_{3} = (0.0045Y + 0.03896768R + 0.07P + 0.76976VC) \times (1 + C / Y) $
4. Scheme M4: $ Q_{4} = 0.005Y + 0.042280464R + 0.044(P + C) + 0.8352VC $
5. Scheme M7: $ Q_{5} = 0.0045Y + 0.05281008R + 0.039(P + C) + 1.0432VC $

For each formula, the calculated quota is the higher of the Bretton Woods calculation or the average of the lowest two calculations after applying an adjustment factor to ensure the total quotas sum to 100%.

IV. Methodological Issues and Data Availability

GDP Data

• The 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) expanded the scope of GDP, leading to increases in reported GDP levels of up to 5% in some countries.
• As of early 2001, 50 members had adopted the 1993 SNA for reporting GDP to the IFS.

Balance of Payments Data

• The BPM5 introduced changes to the conceptual presentation of balance of payments accounts, making a distinction between transactions and other adjustments.
• The use of different classification systems and institutional practices across countries contributed to data discrepancies.
• Errors and omissions were not included in the variability measure, as they are considered residual items and not reflective of actual economic activity.

Financial Account Data

• Financial account data are generally less comprehensive and less accurate than other data used in quota formulas.
• Many countries still rely on government and balance sheet records, with limited coverage of private nonbank sector transactions.

Official Reserves

• Official reserves include monetary gold, SDR holdings, reserve position in the IMF, and foreign exchange holdings.
• The data are based on the International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Data Template.
• For 2004, the annual average of reserves was calculated as the sum of 12 months’ data divided by 12.

V. Key Considerations

• The variability of current receipts and net capital flows is measured as standard deviations from a five-year moving average.
• Data gaps were filled using WEO estimates or staff reports, depending on availability.
• The Eleventh Review data was used for countries that did not provide data through the IFS or WEO.

VI. Conclusion

The updated quota calculations reflect a more accurate and comprehensive dataset, incorporating adjustments for re-exports, IBI, and non-monetary gold transactions. These changes aim to ensure that quota distributions better reflect the true economic size and openness of member countries. The results show that while the overall distribution remains similar to previous estimates, there are notable shifts in the shares of certain regional and economic groups. The document provides a detailed methodology and highlights the importance of consistent data reporting and international standards in quota determination.