MERICS-中国2021年预测：中欧关系调查（英文）-2021.1-23页_1mb

报告摘要

MERICS China Forecast 2021 Summary

Core Content

The MERICS Survey on European China Policy, conducted in December 2020 and early January 2021, gathered insights from 170 China professionals and experts, as well as over 1,000 members of the wider international public. The survey results were featured on 13 January 2021 at the "MERICS China Forecast 2021" event. The summary reflects the key findings and perspectives on China's domestic and international policies, particularly in the context of the global impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, EU-China relations, and global competition.

Main Views and Key Findings

1. Controlling the Economic Shock of Covid-19

Europe's dominant narrative on China's economy in 2021 is expected to focus on stability and self-reliance.
Experts and the wider public believe that China will maintain economic resilience, but there may be concerns about its domestic economic policies and global economic influence.

2. Stability and Self-Reliance in China's Domestic Politics

China's domestic politics in 2021 will be centered on stability and self-reliance.
The Chinese leadership is likely to prioritize internal cohesion, economic recovery, and technological self-sufficiency.

3. Xi Jinping's Grip on Power

There is no doubt about the continued dominance of Xi Jinping's leadership in China in 2021.
The leadership is expected to maintain central control and focus on long-term strategic goals.

4. Tensions with Taiwan as a Challenge

Taiwan is seen as the biggest challenge for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2021.
The issue of Taiwan's status is likely to remain a sensitive and strategic concern for the CCP.

5. China's Regional Priorities

China will prioritize regional partnerships in 2021, particularly with neighboring countries and ASEAN members.
The goal is to strengthen regional influence and economic integration before focusing on global leadership.

6. EU-China Relations: Stable Economically, Tense Politically

Economic relations are expected to remain stable despite political tensions.
The EU and China will continue to engage in trade and investment, but political issues such as human rights and disinformation will be a burden.

7. EU-China Cooperation and Concerns

The EU and China may achieve breakthroughs in investment and climate change cooperation.
However, cooperation on fighting the pandemic is unlikely, as both sides are divided on the issue.

8. EU's China Agenda: Human Rights and Supply Chain Diversification

Human rights violations in Hong Kong and Xinjiang are a major concern for the EU.
Supply chain diversification away from China is also seen as a key priority.
The EU is likely to sanction China for human rights issues and scrutinize Chinese social media platforms.

9. Germany's China Policy After Elections

The German federal elections in the latter half of 2021 may lead to a more assertive stance on China.
This could result in tougher policies on trade, security, and human rights issues.

10. EU and US Closer Under Biden

The EU and the US are expected to draw closer under Biden's administration.
This closer alignment may affect EU-China relations, especially in areas like technology, cybersecurity, and climate.

11. Decoupling the Digital Economy

The EU-China digital economy is expected to experience the most significant decoupling in 2021.
This is due to increased scrutiny of Chinese tech companies and a push for EU-led digital standards.

12. US-China Relations: Tech and Cyber Competition

Tech and cyber competition will intensify in 2021, leading to divergence between the US and China.
The status quo in other areas such as climate goals, counterterrorism, and open trade is expected to continue.

13. China's Model: Human Rights Repression vs. Pandemic Control

Other countries may draw lessons from China's pandemic control measures, but not from its human rights policies.
The "China model" is likely to be seen as effective in public health but controversial in human rights.

14. Covid-19 Cases: US and Europe Face Uphill Battles

The US and Europe are expected to have the most Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people by the end of 2021.
This reflects ongoing challenges in vaccination efforts and public health management.

15. Climate Agenda: Grand Bargain and Greening the BRI

The EU should focus on climate cooperation with China, including a grand bargain on emissions reduction.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is expected to be greened to align with international climate goals.

16. Vaccine Diplomacy: A New Arena for Competition

Vaccine diplomacy is likely to deepen global divisions, as China and other countries compete for vaccine access and influence.

Survey Participants

Survey participants included 1,016 members of the wider public and 169 experts.
Experts were primarily China professionals and academics, while the wider public included individuals from various backgrounds.
The origin of participants was diverse, with responses from different countries and organizations.