2012年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Economic_Report_2012___Sustaining_Post-Crisis_Recovery_Investment_and_Growth_10页_1mb

Tajikistan Economic Report Summary (2012)

Core Content

Tajikistan's economy is heavily reliant on remittances, which account for approximately 40 percent of GDP. The 2008-09 global economic crisis had a significant negative impact on the economy, primarily through a decline in remittances and exports of cotton and aluminum. However, the economy began to recover in 2010 and 2011 as remittances rebounded, reaching 42 percent of GDP in 2010 and an estimated 40 percent in 2011. This recovery was supported by increased domestic demand and growth in the services and agricultural sectors, particularly due to a record cotton harvest.

Main Points

• Remittances: A major driver of Tajikistan's economy, with a sharp decline during the 2008-09 crisis and a subsequent rebound. The recovery in remittances was linked to Russia's economic recovery, which saw more than 90 percent of Tajik migrants returning to work.

• Growth: Economic growth fell to 3.9 percent in 2009 but rebounded to 6.5 percent in 2010 and 7.4 percent in 2011. The services sector accounted for over one-third of the growth in 2011, while agricultural growth was driven by a record cotton harvest. Industry also showed positive performance, especially in processing sectors.

• Inflation: Inflation in 2011 reached 9.3 percent, with food prices rising faster than overall inflation. This was attributed to increased international food and fuel prices, as well as higher transportation costs and fuel duties in Russia. Public transportation fare hikes also contributed to inflationary pressures.

• Poverty Reduction: Tajikistan made significant progress in reducing poverty over the past decade, with the poverty headcount rate halving. However, it remains the poorest country in Central Asia, with per capita GDP 2.6 times its 2003 level but still lagging behind regional peers.

• Life Satisfaction and Public Services: Life satisfaction in Tajikistan improved significantly, with over 75 percent of respondents reporting an economic improvement since 2006. Public service delivery in health and education also saw notable improvements, with satisfaction rates increasing by 20 and 6 percentage points respectively between 2006 and 2010.

• Current Account Balance: Imports surged in 2011 due to increased remittances and higher international prices of food and fuel. This led to a shift from a 2.2 percent GDP surplus in 2010 to a 1.4 percent GDP deficit in 2011. The current account is expected to improve in 2012 with lower international prices and reduced import costs.

• Fiscal Policies: Government revenues increased in 2011, reaching 24.4 percent of GDP. Tax revenues rose due to economic recovery and increased imports, with indirect taxes, particularly VAT, contributing significantly. The government also reduced current expenditure and increased capital spending, especially in the energy and transport sectors. The fiscal deficit decreased from 3.7 percent of GDP in 2010 to 3.0 percent in 2011.

• Debt Management: Tajikistan remains at high risk of debt distress. The government has committed to keeping the debt/GDP ratio below 40 percent and has prepared a Public Debt Management Strategy for 2012-14. External borrowing is expected to be limited to concessional loans.

• Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies: The somoni depreciated by about 27 percent against the US dollar in 2009, helping to improve the current account balance. The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) has maintained a flexible exchange rate regime and intervened in the foreign exchange market when necessary. The currency's value fell to 4.76 TJS/USD by the end of 2011.

• Financial Sector: The financial sector faced severe challenges during the crisis, with non-performing loans (NPLs) peaking at 28 percent of gross loans. The NBT has since tightened prudential requirements and required problem banks to submit action plans to reduce NPLs. Despite these efforts, financial intermediation remains limited, with a high proportion of cash outside the banking system and low trust in financial institutions.

• Economic Outlook: Tajikistan's growth is expected to slow in 2012 due to a global economic slowdown, particularly affecting Russia, which is a major source of remittances. Under a downside scenario of a 2 percent contraction in Russia's economy, Tajikistan's GDP growth is projected to fall to 3.2 percent in 2012 but recover to 4.0 percent in 2013. The current account is expected to worsen, but lower international prices could help reduce inflation. Long-term growth is projected at 5-6 percent annually, driven by construction, trade, and services, with agriculture and agro-processing expected to contribute more as reforms progress.

Key Information

• Remittances: 40% of GDP in 2011, rebounding after the 2008-09 crisis.
• GDP Growth: 7.9% in 2008, 3.9% in 2009, 6.5% in 2010, and 7.4% in 2011.
• Inflation: 9.3% in 2011, driven by food and fuel prices.
• Poverty Headcount: Halved over the past decade, but Tajikistan remains the poorest in Central Asia.
• Fiscal Balance (excluding PIP): Improved from -0.5% in 2010 to 0.5% in 2011.
• Public Debt: 32.5% of GDP in 2011, with external debt declining slightly.
• Exchange Rate: Depreciated to 4.76 TJS/USD in 2011, reflecting economic adjustments.
• Non-Performing Loans: Peaked at 28% in 2010, then fell to 15% in 2011.
• Expected Growth: 6% in 2012 and 5% in 2013 under baseline projections, with a downside scenario of 3.2% and 4.0% respectively.
• Future Growth Drivers: Construction, trade, services, non-cotton agriculture, and power exports.

Conclusion

Tajikistan's economic recovery since the 2008-09 crisis has been largely driven by remittances and domestic demand. While the country has made progress in poverty reduction and public service delivery, it remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly from Russia. The government is focusing on improving efficiency, increasing private investment, and strengthening debt management to ensure sustainable growth. The role of remittances in future growth will depend on their allocation to productive investments rather than consumption.