2015年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Economic_Update_Fall_2015___A_Moderate_Slowdown_in_Economic_Growth_Coupled_with_a_Sharp_Decline_in_Household_Purchasing_Power_26页_1mb

Tajikistan Economic Update Summary (Fall 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Tajikistan's economic developments and policy responses during the first half of 2015. It highlights a moderate slowdown in GDP growth, a sharp decline in household purchasing power, and the impact of external and internal factors on the labor market, poverty, and the financial sector.

Main Economic Developments

GDP Growth and Domestic Demand

• GDP Growth: Remained strong at 6.4% year-on-year (y/y) in the first half of 2015, down slightly from 6.7% in the same period in 2014.
• External Environment: Challenging, with major trading partners (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Turkey) experiencing slower growth or recession.
• Net Exports: Positively contributed to growth despite external headwinds, due to a larger decline in imports than exports.
• Fixed Investment: Rose by 41.4% y/y, driven by construction and industrial sectors, with 39% of investment coming from foreign sources, primarily China.
• Domestic Demand: Declined due to falling remittances and rising prices, impacting the service sector.

Labor Market, Poverty, and Inequality

• Unemployment Rate: Remained at 2.5% in June 2015, unchanged from June 2014.
• Job Growth: Increased by 120,404 jobs, but the number of unemployed workers rose by 5%, and the number of job seekers increased by 4.1%.
• Informal Employment: Remained high, with over 49% of employment in the informal sector.
• Poverty Rate: Fell by 4.4 percentage points over two years to 32%, but the pace of reduction slowed in recent months.
• Regional Poverty: Most pronounced in Regions of Republican Subordination (RRS), Khatlon, and GBAO; lowest in Sughd and Dushanbe.
• Income Inequality: Gini coefficient rose to 29.0 in 2014, with urban areas showing slightly lower inequality than rural areas.
• Impact of Remittances: A 32% drop in remittances from Russia (main source) reduced household purchasing power by over 10% in 2015, negatively affecting poverty reduction.

Economic and Structural Policies

Fiscal Developments

• Budget Surplus: Reached 1% of GDP in the first half of 2015, despite lower revenues.
• Revenue Shortfall: Total revenues were 3.3% below target due to lower import-related revenues (customs duties, VAT).
• Expenditure Management: Government deferred certain capital investments and reprioritized spending.
• Social Spending: Remained at 16% of GDP, with healthcare spending increasing slightly to 2.2% of GDP.
• Fiscal Risks: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) accumulated significant arrears, reaching 6.8% of GDP for receivables and 30.8% for payables.
• Debt Levels: External public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt dropped to 19.6% of GDP, but the government continued to seek concessional loans due to limited fiscal buffers and low foreign reserves.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

• Monetary Policy: NBT maintained an accommodative stance, with broad money and private credit growing by 12.7% and 25.7% y/y, respectively.
• Interest Rates: Refinancing rate remained unchanged at 17.5% since December 2014.
• Inflation: Accelerated to 6.3% y/y in the first half of 2015, driven by food and service price increases.
• Banking Sector Issues:
  • Nonperforming Loans (NPLs): Increased from 27.2% to 29.2% of total loans.
  • Capital Adequacy Ratio: Declined from 14.8% to 14.3%.
  • Liquidity Pressures: Banks face maturity mismatches and increased reliance on NBT for liquidity.
  • Financial Infrastructure: Remains underdeveloped, with deficiencies in credit reporting and secured transactions.

Balance of Payments

• Trade Deficit: Narrowed from 51% of GDP in the first half of 2014 to 36.3% in the first half of 2015.
• Export Composition: Primary commodities and simple manufactures dominated, with electricity exports rising by 9.4%.
• Import Composition: Declined significantly, particularly due to reduced remittances.
• Current Account Deficit: Improved moderately, narrowing from 8% of GDP in 2014 to 6.3% in 2015.

Outlook

• GDP Growth: Expected to slow to 4.2% in 2015, but gradually recover in the medium term, remaining below historical averages.
• Poverty Reduction: Projected to fall to 27.3% by 2017, but recent trends suggest a slowdown.
• Downside Risks:
  • External economic conditions, including the Russian recession and weak demand from other trading partners.
  • Dwindling foreign reserves and contingent liabilities from SOEs.
  • Systemic vulnerabilities in the banking sector.
• Fiscal and Structural Reforms: Needed to address risks, boost productivity, enhance competitiveness, and strengthen social safety nets.

Special Focus: Growth and Jobs

• Labor Market Pressures: Increased as remittances declined, pushing more workers into the informal sector.
• Government Strategy: Introduced measures to reduce informal employment, including stronger monitoring, labor law reforms, and interagency coordination.
• Sectoral Trends: Agriculture remains the largest employer, but declining employment and rising input costs are contributing to the trend.
• Regional Disparities: GBAO and RRS face higher poverty and inequality, while Sughd and Dushanbe are relatively better off.

Key Figures and Data

• GDP Growth: 6.4% y/y (H1 2015), down from 6.7% (H1 2014).
• Remittances: Fell by 32% in USD and 17.5% in TJS, significantly impacting household income.
• Unemployment Rate: 2.5% in June 2015, with a 5% increase in unemployed workers.
• Gini Coefficient: Rose to 29.0 in 2014, with urban areas showing lower inequality than rural areas.
• Nonperforming Loans (NPLs): Increased to 29.2% of total loans in June 2015.
• External PPG Debt: Declined to 19.6% of GDP in July 2015.
• Trade Deficit: Narrowed to 36.3% of GDP (H1 2015) from 51% (H1 2014).
• Fixed Investment: Grew by 41.4% y/y, with 39% foreign-financed, mainly by China.

Conclusion

Tajikistan's economy showed resilience in the face of external challenges, with growth driven by domestic factors and investment. However, declining remittances and rising prices are undermining household purchasing power and slowing poverty reduction. The government's fiscal discipline and monetary policy are critical in managing these risks, but structural weaknesses in the financial sector and limited access to credit remain significant hurdles. Addressing these issues will be essential to sustain growth and improve living standards in the medium term.