2012年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Economic_Update_October_2012___From_Recovery_to_a_Sustainable_Growth_20页_935kb

Tajikistan: From Recovery to a Sustainable Growth

Core Content

Tajikistan has experienced a steady economic recovery since the 2009 slowdown, driven by growth in services and industrial production. The country's economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth of 7.5 percent in January–September 2012. However, challenges persist, particularly due to external shocks and vulnerabilities in the financial sector.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic Developments

• Economic Recovery: Tajikistan's economy continued to recover with services and industrial production as the main growth drivers. Industrial growth was fueled by key sectors such as textile production, food processing, and chemical production.
• Agricultural Performance: Despite a harsh winter, the agricultural sector performed well, with crop production gross output increasing by 9.8 percent year-on-year.
• Remittances: Inward remittances, a critical source of income, have rebounded and reached $1.36 billion in the first half of 2012, up 17 percent compared to the same period in 2011. These remittances have significantly contributed to domestic consumption and services growth.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation rose in 2012, with the CPI increasing by 5.6 percent year-on-year. The increase in food prices, especially wheat, had a significant impact on household consumption and poverty.
• Wheat Price Impact: A 20 percent increase in wheat prices would lead to a 2.3 percent loss in household consumption per capita and an approximate 1.3 percentage point increase in the national poverty rate. Poorer households would be more affected, with a 4.1 percent real consumption loss compared to 1 percent for the richest.
• Trade and Import Costs: The trade deficit widened due to falling export prices of cotton and aluminum, and increased imports. Wheat and wheat flour imports cost about $143 million in the first half of 2012, with the average cost per tonne lower than in 2011.
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Tajikistan eased monetary policy due to low inflation, reducing the refinance rate from 10 percent to 6.5 percent by August 2012. The national currency (somoni) remained stable against the US dollar.
• Financial Sector Reforms: The financial sector remains vulnerable, with non-performing loans (NPLs) fluctuating and concerns about transparency and supervision. The National Bank of Tajikistan has improved transparency and accountability following past misreporting issues.
• Fiscal Recovery: The government has made good progress in fiscal recovery, with the fiscal deficit declining from 6.1 percent of GDP in 2007 to 2.5 percent in 2011. Public spending on social sectors has remained a priority.
• Debt Management: External debt is under control, with a ratio of 32.6 percent of GDP as of end-2011. The government has implemented structural reforms to improve public debt management and fiscal transparency.
• IMF Program: The government successfully implemented its reform program under the IMF's Extended Credit Facility and met or exceeded most performance criteria. It is currently considering a new program with the IMF.

2. Poverty Developments

• Poverty Reduction: Economic growth and remittances have significantly reduced poverty, with the poverty headcount rate declining from 72 percent in 2003 to 47 percent in 2009. Preliminary data suggest it may have fallen to around 39 percent in 2012.
• Welfare Improvements: Non-income dimensions of living standards, such as education and health, have improved. Universal enrollment in primary and lower secondary education is close, and under-5 mortality rate has decreased.
• Remittances and Poverty: Families with migrants have a lower poverty rate, and returnees seldom represent the poorest social strata. Remittances have become a crucial income source for many low-income households.

3. Special Focus: WTO Accession is a Work-in-Progress

• WTO Membership: Tajikistan has been pursuing WTO accession since 2001 and has completed all bilateral agreements. It is expected to become a member in the near future.
• Benefits of WTO Accession: Membership is anticipated to enhance trade opportunities, provide favorable treatment for imports, and allow free transit through WTO member countries. It will also improve the business environment and attract foreign investment.
• Implementation Period: As a less-developed country, Tajikistan will have longer implementation periods and fewer commitments compared to developed countries, giving it more time to prepare for WTO entry.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: 7.5% in January–September 2012, driven by services (13%) and industry (10.4%).
• Inflation: 5.6% year-on-year in January–September 2012, with food prices rising 4.1%.
• Wheat Imports: Increased significantly in 2012 due to lower world prices and stockpiling by traders.
• Non-Performing Loans: Reached 16.4% in June 2012, indicating financial sector vulnerabilities.
• Poverty Headcount: Declined from 72% in 2003 to 47% in 2009, with projections suggesting a further decline to 39% in 2012.
• External Debt: 32.6% of GDP as of end-2011, mostly concessional, with China holding 43%.
• IMF Program: Successfully implemented, with strong economic outcomes and fiscal discipline.
• WTO Accession: Expected to be completed soon, with potential benefits for trade and investment.

Risks and Challenges

• External Vulnerabilities: Tajikistan remains susceptible to external shocks, including falling export prices and rising import costs.
• Financial Sector Weaknesses: NPLs and government-directed lending pose risks to the financial system.
• Inflationary Pressures: Higher global prices of key imports, especially wheat, threaten to increase inflation and worsen poverty.
• Poverty Distribution: Poorer households and rural areas are most vulnerable to food price increases.

Conclusion

Tajikistan has made significant progress in economic recovery and poverty reduction, supported by strong growth in services and industry, increased remittances, and improved fiscal management. However, the country still faces challenges related to external dependencies, financial sector stability, and inflationary pressures. WTO accession is expected to bring long-term benefits, but the process is ongoing and requires continued reform and preparation. The outlook remains positive, with the potential for sustainable growth provided the country manages its current vulnerabilities effectively.