Knight_Frank-全球气候报告2018年秋季版（英文）-2018.10-10页-3mb

The Wealth Report 2018 Autumn Update Summary

Core Content

The Wealth Report 2018 Autumn Update provides an in-depth look at global wealth trends, focusing on residential property markets, investment opportunities, and the implications of geopolitical and economic changes. It highlights the shifting dynamics of wealth distribution, the role of education in UHNW (Ultra-high-net-worth) and HNW (High-net-worth) strategies, and the impact of regulatory and political developments on property investment.

Main Points

1. Definitions and Key Terms

• UHNWI: Individuals with a net worth over $30 million, excluding their primary residence.
• HNWI: Individuals with a net worth over $1 million, excluding their primary residence.
• Prime Property: The most expensive and desirable properties in a given location, typically the top 5% of the market by value.

2. Editor's Introduction

• The Autumn Update is the first in a series of regular reports, offering a compact yet comprehensive insight into global wealth trends.
• The report includes an interview with Ian Bremmer on his book Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism, and an update on luxury residential markets from Kate Everett-Allen.
• The logistics sector in Asia-Pacific is highlighted as a growing opportunity due to the rise of online retail.

3. Wealth Distribution Trends

• Asia is leading the way in the growth of demibillionaires (those with over $500 million in net assets).
• By 2022, Asia is expected to surpass North America in the number of demibillionaires.
• The US remains the largest source of demibillionaires, with a projected increase from 1,830 to nearly 2,500 by 2022.
• China is also expected to see a significant rise, from 490 to 990 demibillionaires.

4. Global Property Market Trends

• London's Super-Prime Market:
  • Prices have fallen by 10–20% over the past three years.
  • The weaker pound has made London properties more attractive to foreign buyers, with effective discounts of 30% or more.
  • Sales of super-prime properties have increased by 28% compared to the same period in 2017.
  • British buyers now account for 38% of all purchases, the highest in five years.
• Emerging Markets:
  • Buyers from mainland China, the Middle East, and Russia are increasingly active in the London market.
  • The market is showing signs of recovery, with increased activity and a more resilient buyer base.

5. Global Economic and Geopolitical Context

• The global economy continues to grow, with the IMF forecasting 3.9% growth for 2018 and 2019.
• Despite rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, the market remains strong.
• The report warns of the long-term impact of increased taxation on high-value properties and the potential for reduced market liquidity.

6. Capital Movements and Transparency Initiatives

• Overseas Deposits:
  • The UK saw the largest inflow of overseas deposits in 2017, reaching $1.8 trillion.
  • France and Taiwan were also popular destinations.
  • The US saw a significant increase in deposit outflows, with funds flowing to the UK, France, and Canada.
• Transparency Measures:
  • The OECD and UK government are implementing stricter transparency rules, such as the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which may influence investment strategies.
  • The UK is introducing a register of ultimate beneficial owners (UBOs) for overseas property holdings by 2021.

7. Education as a Wealth Driver

• A key driver of the UK's prime property market is the demand for international education.
• Over £2 billion is invested annually in London's prime housing market by parents seeking accommodation for their children's education.
• UK Schools and Universities:
  • Prestige and quality of education remain the top motivations for international families.
  • The UK continues to attract students and families, with 66% of respondents reporting no change in interest due to Brexit.
  • US, Canada, and EU countries are also popular choices for international education.

8. Emerging Trends in Prime Markets

• The Prime International Residential Index (PIRI 100) highlights the performance of 20 key cities.
• Global Price Growth: Slowing overall, with some cities like Tokyo, Madrid, and Los Angeles bucking the trend.
• Los Angeles leads in the US with a 7.8% price growth.
• Singapore and Tokyo are experiencing renewed growth, linked to foreign demand, economic sentiment, and investment in anticipation of events like the 2020 Olympics.
• Inventory Levels: Rising in some markets, and the full impact of Trump's SALT reforms is expected to be seen in 2019.

9. Regulatory Impact

• Macro-prudential Measures:
  • Hong Kong, Singapore, and Vancouver have introduced new regulations, including vacancy taxes, stamp duty hikes, and tighter lending rules.
  • These measures may increase costs for investors but also improve market transparency and confidence.

Key Information

• The report emphasizes the growing influence of Asia in the global wealth landscape.
• London's super-prime market is adapting to new economic and political realities, with a notable rise in domestic buyer activity.
• The demand for international education remains a significant factor in property investment, especially in the UK.
• Trade tensions and regulatory changes are shaping the global property investment environment, with uncertainty and adaptation playing key roles.
• Transparency initiatives are gaining momentum, affecting how wealth is managed and where it flows.

Conclusion

The Wealth Report 2018 Autumn Update offers a detailed and timely analysis of the evolving global wealth and property market landscape. It underscores the importance of understanding geopolitical and economic shifts, the role of education in wealth strategies, and the long-term implications of regulatory and tax reforms. The report serves as a valuable resource for UHNWs and HNWs looking to navigate the complexities of a changing world.