2016年-普华永道中国_中国对半导体行业的影响-2015年报告_37页_2mb

Summary of China's Impact on the Semiconductor Industry: 2015 Update

Core Content

This report provides an overview of China's growing influence on the global semiconductor industry, highlighting its market consumption, industry growth, design capabilities, manufacturing capacity, and the role of major companies.

Main Points

• Market Growth:

  • China's semiconductor consumption has grown significantly faster than the global market.
  • From 2003 to 2014, China's semiconductor consumption increased by $173 billion, while the global market grew by $169 billion.
  • In 2014, China consumed 56.6% of the global semiconductor market, marking it as the largest consumer.
  • China's consumption grew at a 10-year CAGR of 18.8%, compared to a global CAGR of 6.6%.
  • From 2004 to 2014, China's semiconductor industry revenue grew at a 20.5% CAGR, outpacing the global market's 4.7% CAGR.
  • China's share of the global semiconductor industry reached 13.4% in 2014, up from 12.0% in 2013 and 11.6% in 2012.

• Market Segmentation:

  • In 2014, IC consumption represented 57% of the global market, with a growth rate of 13.6%.
  • O-S-D (optoelectronics-sensors-discretes) consumption reached $34.3 billion, with a 8.1% growth rate.
  • China's market share for O-S-D remained relatively flat at 56%, while its share in IC continued to grow.

• Industry Growth by Sector:

  • The IC design sector grew the fastest, with a 30% increase in 2014 to $17.1 billion.
  • The IC design industry grew at a 36.8% CAGR from 2003 to 2014, increasing from $541 million to $17.1 billion.
  • The IC manufacturing and packaging/test sectors also saw growth, but at lower rates than design.
  • The IC design sector accounted for 22% of China's total semiconductor industry revenue in 2014, up from 20% in 2013.
  • The O-S-D sector remained the largest in terms of revenue, contributing 36.5%, followed by packaging/test at 26.5%.

• Design Industry:

  • The number of IC design enterprises in China increased from 583 in 2013 to 664 by the end of 2014, a net increase of 81.
  • Of these, 250 could be foreign-invested or MNC subsidiaries, while no more than 100 are truly indigenous fabless companies.
  • Employment in the IC design sector grew by 15% in 2014 to about 147,000, with a slight shift toward mid-sized companies.
  • Average sales per employee increased by 13% to $116,000, while average employees per enterprise increased by 0.9%.

• Manufacturing Capacity:

  • China's total wafer fabrication capacity remained relatively constant from 2011 to 2014 at 2.3 million 8-inch equivalent wafer starts per month.
  • Its share of global wafer fabrication capacity increased to 11.7% in 2014.
  • China's foundry production accounted for 39% of its total capacity, compared to 28% globally.
  • O-S-D production accounted for 36% of China's capacity, versus 17% globally.
  • China's share of advanced technology node (28nm or less) capacity was 5% in 2014, up from previous years.
  • Only 10 of China's 118 global 300mm wafer fabs are located in China.

• Major Semiconductor Companies:

  • The top semiconductor companies supplying to China include Intel, Samsung, TI, Toshiba, SK Hynix, ST, Freescale, AMD, Qualcomm, and others.
  • These companies have consistently been among the top ten suppliers to China over the past eleven years.
  • In 2014, China's semiconductor consumption from these ten companies increased by 11%, slightly less than the overall market growth.
  • The top ten suppliers accounted for 42.4% of China's semiconductor consumption in 2014, down from 45% in 2011.

Key Information

• Consumption vs. Production Gap:

  • China's IC consumption/production gap reached $20.1 billion in 2014, up from $18.2 billion in 2013.
  • The gap is expected to grow further to $151.5 billion by 2017 due to continued demand and limited domestic production.
  • The ratio of China's IC production revenue to consumption increased from 17% in 2001 to 29% in 2014, with a forecast of 36% by 2017.

• Government Initiatives:

  • The Chinese government has implemented policies to boost indigenous semiconductor production, including tax incentives since the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011).
  • These initiatives aim to reduce the consumption/production gap and increase self-sufficiency in IC manufacturing.

• Future Outlook:

  • Analysts predict that China's share of global electronic equipment production will increase to 38% by 2017.
  • The semiconductor content of this production is expected to rise to 35%, while the global average is projected to increase to 25%.
  • China's share of global semiconductor consumption is forecast to increase by 4%.

Conclusion

China's semiconductor market has become the largest in the world, with rapid consumption growth and a significant increase in its share of the global industry. While the design sector is growing at a faster pace than manufacturing, the government's efforts to boost indigenous production are yielding some improvements. However, the consumption/production gap remains substantial, indicating that China still relies heavily on imported semiconductors. The increasing demand for advanced technology nodes and the shift in market concentration suggest that China's semiconductor industry will continue to play a pivotal role in the global landscape.