20170707-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_16页_794kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of economic data and company updates for several Asian markets, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, as well as key indices and analyst recommendations. It includes forecasts, performance metrics, and corporate events relevant to the region.

Key Economic Indicators (China)

FAI Growth (Fixed Asset Investment): Expected to stabilize at 8.6% yoy for 1H17, supported by increased infrastructure investment and rebounding raw material prices.
Industrial Production (IP): Projected to grow at 6.7% yoy in June, with a strong PMI sub-index and increased coal consumption.
Retail Sales: Anticipated to rise by 10.9% yoy in June, driven by strong car sales and e-commerce promotions.
Exports & Imports: Expected to grow by 9% and 10% yoy, respectively, due to improved demand and recovery in global markets.
Inflation: CPI inflation likely to decline to 1.4% yoy, while PPI inflation is expected to rebound to 5.8% yoy, influenced by commodity price increases and lower food prices.
Money Supply (M2): Projected to grow at 10% yoy, with increased liquidity injections by the PBOC.
New Loans: Expected to increase to Rmb1.3t in June, due to tighter regulations curbing off-balance-sheet lending.

Company Updates

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)

Performance: Likely to surpass market expectations in 2017 with a 15% top-line growth and 15% net income growth.
Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG): Achieved 7% yoy in 5M17, with strong Jun 17 sales. Expected to improve further in 3Q17.
Margin Stability: Net margin is expected to remain at 14.4% in 2017, slightly higher than the Street's forecast of 12.8%.
Store Expansion: Plans to open 10-15 new stores in 2017-18, with a focus on smaller stores due to difficulty in acquiring large sites.
Valuation: Upgraded to BUY, with a new target price of Rp1,300 (18.2% upside). Target price is based on a historical average PE of 25x applied to the average EPS of 2017F and 2018F.
Key Financials:
- Net Turnover: Rpb5,779 (2017F), Rpb6,726 (2018F), Rpb7,715 (2019F)
- Net Profit: Rpb818 (2017F), Rpb951 (2018F), Rpb1,079 (2019F)
- EPS: Rp47.7 (2017F), Rp55.5 (2018F), Rp62.9 (2019F)
- PE: 23.0 (2017F), 19.8 (2018F), 17.5 (2019F)
- P/B: 5.3 (2017F), 4.5 (2018F), 3.8 (2019F)
- EV/EBITDA: 17.5 (2017F), 15.0 (2018F), 13.2 (2019F)

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	21320.0	-0.7	-0.6	0.7	7.9
S&P 500	2409.8	-0.9	-1.3	-1.0	7.6
FTSE 100	7337.3	-0.4	-0.2	-1.9	2.7
AS30	5797.5	-0.1	-1.0	1.6	1.4
CSI 300	3660.1	0.0	-0.2	3.6	10.6
FSSTI	3226.3	-0.7	-1.0	-0.1	12.0
HSCEI	10346.3	-0.3	-0.8	-2.5	10.1
HSI	25465.2	-0.2	-1.9	-2.0	15.7
JCI	5849.6	0.4	0.5	2.3	10.4
KLCI	1770.5	0.1	-0.0	-0.9	7.8
KOSPI	2387.8	-0.0	-0.3	1.2	17.8
Nikkei 225	19994.1	-0.4	-1.1	0.0	4.6
SET	1569.6	-0.3	-0.5	0.2	1.7
TWSE	10368.2	-0.4	-0.5	1.5	12.0
BDI	847	-2.8	-7.9	3.5	-11.9
CPO (RM/ml)	2666	1.2	1.5	-3.1	-16.7
Brent Crude	48	0.7	1.5	-4.0	-15.3

Top Picks and Recommendations

BUY Recommendations

Alibaba (BABA US): Target price of $173.00 (21.7% upside)
Beijing Ent. Water (371 HK): Target price of HK$7.60 (28.2% upside)
Telekomunikasi Indo (TLKM J): Target price of Rp5,000 (7.5% upside)
V.S. Industry (VSI MK): Target price of $2.40 (18.2% upside)
OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price of S$13.00 (22.1% upside)
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price of Bt600 (18.1% upside)

SELL Recommendations

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price of HK$6.00 (43.1% downside)
Hartalega (HART MK): Target price of MK$4.07 (40.8% downside)

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	End
Analyst Marketing on Thai Strategy & Thai Telco	Malaysia	6 Jul	7 Jul
Luncheon with Wisdom Education International Holdings	Hong Kong	7 Jul	7 Jul
Teleconference Call with Pertamina Corporation	Malaysia	10 Jul	10 Jul
New Economy Conference 2017	Kuala Lumpur	11 Jul	11 Jul
Roadshow with Citic Envirotech Ltd	Taipei	18 Jul	19 Jul
Analyst Marketing on Singapore Strategy & Small & Mid Caps	Taipei	20 Jul	21 Jul
Roadshow with Jacobson Pharma	Shanghai	28 Jul	28 Jul
Visit to Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy	Sarawak	1 Aug	3 Aug
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation	US/Canada	5 Sep	12 Sep

Key Assumptions

Indicator	2016	2017F	2018F
GDP (yoy)	1.6	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone (yoy)	1.7	1.8	1.6
Japan (yoy)	1.0	0.9	1.2
Singapore (yoy)	2.0	2.4	2.5
Malaysia (yoy)	4.2	5.0	4.9
Thailand (yoy)	3.2	3.3	3.3
Indonesia (yoy)	5.0	5.2	5.5
Hong Kong (yoy)	1.9	2.0	2.0
China (yoy)	6.7	6.3	6.3
Brent (Average)	45	55	58
CPO (RM/mt)	2,653	2,600	2,500

Malaysia: Building Materials Sector

Steel Prices: Continued to ease in June due to lower local consumption and higher Chinese steel production.
Cement Earnings: Expected to face another quarter of earnings disappointment before a price recovery in 2H17.
Earnings Outlook: Steel companies may experience a breather in 2Q17. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Top Pick: Hume Industries

Analysts and Contact

China: Zhu Chao Ping
Email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com
Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822
Indonesia: Stevanus Juanda
Email: stevanusjuanda@uobkayhian.com
Phone: +6221 2993 3845

Summary of Key Points

China's Economic Outlook: Economic data is expected to stabilize with moderate recovery in key indicators like IP, retail sales, and exports. PPI inflation is likely to rebound, while CPI inflation is expected to decline.
Ace Hardware Indonesia: Strong performance expected in 2017 with 15% revenue and net income growth, leading to an upgrade to BUY.
Malaysia's Steel Market: Steel prices eased in June due to weak domestic consumption and increased Chinese production.
Regional Indices: Mixed performance with some indices showing declines and others showing modest gains.
Corporate Events: A series of analyst meetings and roadshows planned for July and August 2017.

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