20171010-中国银河国际证券-A-Share_Monthly_Portfolio_25页_1mb

报告摘要

A-Share Monthly Portfolio Summary - October 2017

Core Content

The A-Share Monthly Portfolio for October 2017 outlines the changes in the investment portfolios across different time horizons and provides performance data from September 2017, along with an outlook for the month of October. The document highlights the importance of external market factors and suggests a cautious investment approach while identifying quality stocks that are expected to outperform.

Main Portfolios

October Stock Portfolio (Short-term):
- Includes: Beijing New Building Materials (000786.CH), China Vanke (000002.CH), CITIC Securities (600030.CH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.CH), NavInfo Co (002405.CH), RiseSun Real Estate Development (002146.CH), SAIC Motor (600104.CH), Shanghai Electric (600021.CH), Zhengye Technology (300410.CH), and ST Zhenxing Biopharmaceutical and Chemical (000403.CH).
Medium-term Portfolio (3-6 months):
- Includes: Beijing New Building Materials (000786.CH), Huadian Power International (600027.CH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.CH), Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical (603707.CH), NavInfo Co (002405.CH), Ping An Insurance Group (601318.CH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.CH), Suzhou Keda Technology (603660.CH), Tianqi Lithium (002466.CH), and Zhengye Technology (300410.CH).
Long-term Portfolio (12 months):
- Includes: Beijing New Building Materials (000786.CH), Changchun High and New Technology (000661.CH), Guizhou Space Appliance (002025.CH), Highlander Digital Technology (300065.CH), Jointo Energy Investment (000600.CH), NavInfo Co (002405.CH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.CH), Suzhou Keda Technology (603660.CH), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services (002353.CH), and Zhengye Technology (300410.CH).

September Performance

Monthly Portfolio: Gained 0.20% in September 2017, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.17ppt.
Medium-term Portfolio: Gained 1.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.76ppt.
Long-term Portfolio: Gained 2.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.73ppt.

October Outlook

External markets, including geopolitical developments and RMB/USD exchange rate fluctuations, are expected to impact A shares.
The domestic economy is projected to remain stable, with tighter financial regulations and slightly improved risk appetite.
Monetary policy will stay prudent, and macro-level liquidity will be tight.
Fiscal policy and reforms will continue to influence the market.
A range-bound trading pattern is anticipated.
Investors should remain alert to "black swan" events.

Key Investment Recommendations

Zhengye Technology (300410.CH)

Investment Rating: Overweight
Driving Factors: Recovery in global PCB industry, growth in new energy vehicle lithium-ion battery equipment, expansion of smart manufacturing capacity.
Catalysts: Orders from large clients, progress in M&A in smart manufacturing.
Valuation: 2017E EPS of RMB1.06, PER of 37.6x; 2018E EPS of RMB1.57, PER of 25.6x.
Recommendation: Strong growth potential with over 40% net profit growth expected over the next three years.
Main Risks: Earnings of acquired companies below expectations, slower-than-expected construction of the smart manufacturing park.

Kweichow Moutai (600519.CH)

Investment Rating: Recommend
Driving Factors: Robust demand, stable product prices, strong brand influence, and high-end baijiu growth.
Catalysts: Stronger revenue and net profit growth.
Valuation: 2017E EPS of RMB16.93, PER of 31.2x; 2018E EPS of RMB21.34, PER of 24.7x.
Recommendation: Maintain "RECOMMEND" rating due to strong fundamentals and pricing power.
Main Risks: Lower-than-expected sales, macroeconomic and political factors.

SAIC Motor (600104.CH)

Investment Rating: Recommend
Driving Factors: Leading market position, new product launches, and strong performance from joint ventures.
Catalysts: Better-than-expected sales of new models, robust automotive industry climate.
Valuation: 2017E EPS of RMB3.12, PER of 10x; 2018E EPS of RMB3.50, PER of 9x.
Recommendation: Maintain "RECOMMEND" rating due to attractive valuation and potential for growth.
Main Risks: Weaker-than-expected sales in new energy vehicles, slower raw material price growth.

RiseSun Real Estate Development (002146.CH)

Investment Rating: Recommend
Driving Factors: Strong sales performance, expansion into tier-3/4 cities, and development of new businesses.
Catalysts: Quality company with strong fundamentals and low valuation, breakthrough in new business.
Valuation: 2017E EPS of RMB1.16, PER of 8.3x; 2018E EPS of RMB1.29, PER of 7.5x.
Recommendation: Maintain "RECOMMEND" rating with potential for re-rating.
Main Risks: Tightened regulatory policies, weaker-than-expected sales in tier-3/4 cities, slower development in new businesses.

China Vanke (000002.CH)

Investment Rating: Recommend
Driving Factors: Strong sales, improving gross profit margin, and expansion into new businesses.
Catalysts: Quality company with strong fundamentals and low valuation, faster development in new businesses with government support.
Valuation: 2017E EPS of RMB2.43, PER of 10.9x; 2018E EPS of RMB2.81, PER of 9.4x.
Recommendation: Maintain "RECOMMEND" rating with re-rating opportunities from new businesses.
Main Risks: Tightened regulatory policies, slower-than-expected development in new businesses.

ST Zhenxing Biopharmaceutical and Chemical (000403.CH)

Investment Rating: Recommend
Driving Factors: Booming blood-products industry due to plasma shortage, expansion of plasma stations, and development of new blood products.
Catalysts: Debt restructuring on track, potential for improved profitability from new products.
Valuation: 2017E EPS of RMB0.55, PER of 54.5x; 2018E EPS of RMB1.23, PER of 24.4x.
Recommendation: Maintain "RECOMMEND" rating with potential for re-rating.
Main Risks: Earnings of acquired companies below expectations, slower-than-expected progress in smart manufacturing park.

Summary of Key Themes

The document emphasizes the importance of monitoring external market factors, including geopolitical tensions and RMB/USD exchange rate fluctuations.
Quality stocks are highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals, growth potential, and attractive valuations.
There is a clear distinction between short-term, medium-term, and long-term portfolios, tailored to different investment horizons.
The investment recommendations suggest a cautious yet optimistic outlook, with emphasis on diversification and identifying companies with sustainable growth.

展开完整摘要