年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Pakistan_Selected_Issues_71页_1mb

Summary of the IMF Report on Pakistan: Poverty, Inequality, Social Safety Nets, and Financial Development

Core Content

This IMF report, dated June 1, 2017, analyzes key socio-economic issues in Pakistan, including poverty and inequality, social safety nets (SSNs), fiscal decentralization, and financial development. The report provides an assessment of the effectiveness of existing programs and offers policy recommendations to improve inclusiveness and growth.

Main Issues and Findings

A. Poverty and Inequality in Pakistan

• Poverty reduction has been significant over the past two decades, with the poverty headcount declining from 64% in 2001 to 29.5% in 2013 (based on the new poverty line).
• Rural poverty remains high, with about 36% of the population living in poverty, compared to 18% in urban areas.
• Regional disparities are notable, with the highest poverty incidence in Balochistan at over 50%.
• The multi-dimensional poverty index (MPI) indicates 38.8% of the population is poor, with 55% in rural areas and 70% in Balochistan.
• Children's malnutrition is still a major challenge, with stunting rates at 45% and wasting rates at 10.5% among children under five.
• Education and health outcomes are below regional averages, despite some improvements, due to low public spending.
• Gender inequality persists, with women's labor force participation at 25% and a high unemployment rate (9%) compared to men.
• The informal economy is large (estimated at 30–50% of the formal economy), constraining inclusiveness and economic growth.

B. Social Safety Nets, Targeting, and Outcomes

• Social safety nets (SSNs) in Pakistan have improved over time but remain relatively small.
• The Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) is the main SSN, providing unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) to poor households.
• BISP's targeting mechanism has been improved with the introduction of proxy means testing, and a poverty scorecard was used to identify beneficiaries.
• BISP has contributed to poverty reduction, women's empowerment, and improved child nutrition.
• Education conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been introduced to support school enrollment and attendance.
• Despite progress, coverage and targeting remain limited due to an outdated beneficiaries database, lack of awareness, and absence of identification cards.
• Other non-contributory SSNs include the Zakat and Bait-ul-Mal programs, as well as the Workers Welfare Fund.
• Zakat is a religious-based program that provides monthly allowances and educational support but lacks formal targeting mechanisms.
• Bait-ul-Mal and Workers Welfare Fund have seen declining disbursements and coverage.

C. Policy Recommendations

• Updating the BISP beneficiaries' database and broadening its coverage are essential to improve the program's impact.
• Increasing educational cash transfers under BISP is needed to cover schooling costs and improve child attendance.
• Continuing the energy subsidies reform is crucial to create fiscal space for strengthening SSNs and social spending.
• Strengthening the business climate could help reduce informality and enhance inclusiveness.
• Enhancing awareness among the poor, particularly in rural areas, and supporting identification card acquisition are necessary for better program participation.
• Integration of smaller SSN programs into BISP can improve overall efficiency and coverage.

Key Figures and Data

• Poverty Headcount: Declined from 64% (2001) to 29.5% (2013).
• Multi-Dimensional Poverty Incidence: 38.8% of the population (55% in rural areas, 70% in Balochistan).
• Stunting Rate: 45% among children under five.
• Wasting Rate: 10.5% among children under five.
• Public Expenditure on Education and Health: Increased to 2.5% and 0.9% of GDP, respectively, but remains below regional and emerging market averages.
• BISP Expenditure: Rose from PRs 50 billion in FY2013/14 to PRs 115 billion in FY2017/18.
• BISP Coverage: Expanded from 3.8 million households in FY2012/13 to 5.4 million in FY2016/17.
• CCT Coverage: Expanded from 52,000 children to 1.3 million children in FY2016.
• Zakat Program: Declined from 2.5 million beneficiaries in the mid-2000s to 0.8 million in FY2014/15.
• BISP's Impact: Reduced the poverty gap by 3 percentage points and stunting rates by 4 percentage points among beneficiaries.
• Gender Inequality: Women's labor force participation at 25%, with a higher unemployment rate (9%) compared to men (5%).

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening social safety nets through improved targeting, expanded coverage, and increased financial support, especially in the areas of education and health. It also highlights the need for reforms in the energy subsidy system to free up fiscal resources and reducing the size of the informal economy to enhance inclusiveness and economic growth.