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Cloud Platforms and NoSQL Database Summary

Core Content Overview

This report from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research explores the growing role of NoSQL databases in the broader database market, which is expected to expand significantly due to the rise of mobile, web, and IoT applications. It outlines the current state of the NoSQL market, its potential for growth, and how it compares to traditional relational databases.

Main Points

Market Growth and TAM

• The total database market in 2014 was estimated at $31 billion, with NoSQL representing $350 million or 1% of this market.
• NoSQL is expected to grow rapidly, potentially reaching $3–6 billion in just five years, which would represent 7–13% of the total database market.
• This growth could lead to a 55–76% CAGR, indicating strong potential for expansion.

NoSQL vs Relational Databases

• NoSQL is not yet replacing relational databases (RDBMS) on a large scale.
• Most organizations use NoSQL for new applications rather than migrating existing workloads from relational databases.
• Relational databases continue to dominate the market, with Oracle (46%), Microsoft (20%), and IBM (17%) holding the largest shares.

Key Drivers for NoSQL Adoption

• Scalability: NoSQL excels in handling large transaction volumes, lower costs, and multi-data center replication.
• Speed to Deployment and Ease of Development: NoSQL is schema-less, allowing developers to start storing data immediately without needing a DBA.
• Flexibility: NoSQL databases do not rely on SQL, offering more adaptability for evolving data models.
• Cost Efficiency: NoSQL databases are roughly 1/3 the cost of relational databases when not under an ELA (Enterprise License Agreement).

Types of NoSQL Databases

• Document Databases: Store data in documents (like JSON or XML), ideal for flexible and scalable data storage. Examples include MongoDB, MarkLogic, and IBM.
• Key Value Databases: Store data as key-value pairs, often used for high-performance and scalable applications. Examples include Couchbase, Riak, and others.
• Column/ Table Style Databases: Structured in flexible columns or tables, suitable for applications like Apple, eBay, Facebook, and Netflix.
• Graph Databases: Process many-to-many relationships, used by companies such as CrunchBase, Pitney-Bowes, TomTom, and Walmart.

Public Cloud and NoSQL

• Public cloud platforms help level the playing field for NoSQL vendors, enabling easier deployment and scalability.
• However, existing workloads are unlikely to be moved from current relational databases to NoSQL, as companies prefer to maintain their current providers.

Cannibalization Potential

• NoSQL may eventually cannibalize some relational database spend, especially as enterprises rationalize their database investments.
• This could involve consolidating multiple NoSQL vendors or reducing spending on traditional relational databases.

Key Players and Market Dynamics

• Incumbents: Oracle, Microsoft, and IBM are the dominant relational database vendors. They have NoSQL offerings but currently hold minimal market share.
• NoSQL Vendors: Most are private companies, with few public market options available. Examples include MongoDB, Couchbase, and Basho.
• Acquisitions: Major NoSQL vendors are being acquired by large companies, such as Apple (FoundationDB), Amazon (Amiato), CenturyLink (Orchestra), and DataStax (Aurelius).

Future Outlook

• The NoSQL market is in Phase II, with growth driven by new applications rather than replacing existing ones.
• The report suggests that Phase III could see more disruption as enterprises consolidate their NoSQL spend or reduce relational database costs.
• In the long term, NoSQL could capture up to 20% of total database spend, with 1–2% cannibalization of relational databases.

Conclusion

NoSQL databases are gaining traction due to their scalability, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness, particularly for mobile, web, and IoT applications. While they are not yet replacing relational databases on a broad scale, they are expected to grow significantly and eventually challenge traditional database vendors. The market is still in its early stages, and the evolution of NoSQL will depend on its ability to meet enterprise needs and gain broader adoption.

Important Disclosures

• Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports, which may create a conflict of interest.
• This report is only one factor to consider in investment decisions.
• For full disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.