2017年-世界发展银行全球_Push_and_Pull___A_Study_of_International_Migration_from_Nepal_40页_4mb

Summary of "Push and Pull: A Study of International Migration from Nepal" by Maheshwor Shrestha

Core Content

This paper investigates the determinants of international migration from Nepal, focusing on the role of push and pull factors in the context of liquidity constraints. The study utilizes a panel dataset of 452 Nepali villages observed in the years 2001, 2008, and 2010 to analyze how shocks in the origin and destination countries influence migration decisions.

Main Points

Push Factors

• Rainfall shocks: Positive deviations from historical rainfall levels increase farm income, which in turn boosts migration to India by 54% (or 2.5 percentage points). However, these shocks have no effect on migration to other destinations.
• Conflict shocks: An increase in conflict intensity, measured by deaths per 1000 population, increases international migration, especially from urban areas. Conflict disproportionately affects wealthier households, reducing their consumption and amenity, which makes migration more attractive to them.
• Liquidity constraints: Households are unable to borrow to finance migration, which implies that only those with sufficient wealth can afford to migrate. The study finds that only richer households can migrate due to the high cost of migration to non-India destinations.

Pull Factors

• Growth in manufacturing and construction sectors in destination countries, especially Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries, has a strong positive effect on migration to these regions.
• High returns from migration to these destinations, combined with the network effects and established migration channels, make them more attractive for households with higher income.
• The paper shows that households are responsive to pull shocks, indicating their willingness to take advantage of profitable opportunities abroad.

Key Findings

• Rainfall shocks increase migration to India, which is a low-cost, low-return destination, but have no effect on migration to other countries.
• Conflict has a larger impact on migration from urban areas, where households are more affected by the loss of consumption and amenity.
• Growth in destination economies (especially construction and manufacturing) increases migration to those countries, especially for low-skilled workers.
• Income shocks can increase migration to India, but small income gains are unlikely to influence migration to high-cost destinations.
• The theoretical framework predicts an inverted-U relationship between household wealth and migration rates, which is supported by the empirical results.

Theoretical Framework

• The paper presents a simple model of migration decisions where households are liquidity constrained and cannot borrow to finance migration.
• Migration is driven by both push and pull factors, with push factors (like rainfall and conflict) affecting the origin, and pull factors (like economic growth) affecting the destination.
• Households migrate if and only if:
  $$
  U(mC + w + \alpha r, p) > V(w + r, p)
  $$
  and
  $$
  w + r > C
  $$
  where $w$ is permanent wealth, $r$ is farm income, $C$ is migration cost, and $m$ is migrant income multiplier.

Empirical Strategy

• The paper uses exogenous shocks (rainfall and conflict) to identify the marginal effects on migration.
• Growth in destination countries is used as a proxy for pull shocks.
• The migration probability is estimated based on household wealth distribution and thresholds for affordability and desirability.

Context and Data

• India is the main destination for Nepali workers, due to its low migration costs and established networks.
• Non-India destinations (especially the Persian Gulf and Malaysia) are high-cost, high-return destinations, with recent growth in migrant outflows.
• The data is drawn from a panel of 452 villages, and the migration patterns are analyzed in the context of macroeconomic and conflict shocks.

Contributions to Literature

• This paper contributes to the literature on the effect of income on migration, showing that income increases can boost migration to India, but not to other destinations.
• It also adds to the understanding of conflict-induced migration, showing that conflict affects migration more for richer households.
• Finally, it highlights the role of demand from the destination in influencing migration, showing that increased demand leads to higher migration rates.

Conclusion

The study concludes that migration decisions are influenced by both push and pull factors, and that liquidity constraints play a crucial role in determining migration patterns. It also emphasizes the importance of institutional factors and networks in facilitating migration to specific destinations. The findings suggest that households are responsive to pull shocks, and that migration to high-return destinations is more likely when migration costs are reduced.