2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_How_Do_Migration_and_Remittances_Affect_Inequality__A_Case_Study_of_Mexico_21页_999kb

Summary of "How Do Migration and Remittances Affect Inequality? A Case Study of Mexico"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper explores the impact of migration and remittances on inequality in Mexico, focusing on how these factors serve as a form of insurance during domestic and external crises. The study uses household-level data from the National Survey of Income and Expenditure (ENIGH) to analyze the distributional effects of remittances.

Main Points

• Remittances and Inequality: The paper finds that remittances reduce inequality in Mexico. As migration opportunities expand, remittances become more pro-poor, thereby strengthening their insurance function and helping to mitigate the negative effects of shocks on the poorest households.

• Insurance Role: Remittances act as a buffer against economic shocks, especially for poorer households. This is evident in their increased role during and after crises, where they provide more stability to household income.

• Crisis Impact: The study examines two major crises—the 1994 Mexican Peso crisis and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. It finds that remittances have a more pronounced effect in reducing inequality during these periods compared to non-crisis times.

• Migration Trends: Mexico has a long history of migration, especially to the United States. The profile of migrants has evolved over time, with a greater proportion of older, less-educated individuals and a shift toward more rural origins.

• Empirical Strategy: The paper employs a non-parametric approach using propensity score matching to estimate counterfactual incomes. This allows for a more accurate assessment of how remittances affect inequality by comparing households that receive remittances to those that do not, while ensuring they are similar in other characteristics.

• Household Characteristics: Remittance-receiving households tend to be smaller, have fewer employed members, more children and elderly, and are more likely to have a female head. They are also generally less educated compared to non-remittance-receiving households.

Key Findings

• Income Distribution: Remittance-receiving households are on average poorer than non-remittance-receiving households, even when accounting for remittances. Without remittances, they would be in the 4th decile, but with remittances, they move to the 6th decile.

• Determinants of Remittances:

  • The number of elderly in the household positively correlates with remittances.
  • The number of children negatively correlates with remittances.
  • Female household heads are more likely to receive remittances.
  • Higher education of the household head is associated with lower remittance receipts, except at the bottom decile.
  • Urban households are less likely to receive remittances compared to rural ones.

• Crisis Effects:

  • During the 1994 Mexican Peso crisis, remittances increased in response to economic shocks.
  • During the Global Financial Crisis, remittances again played a significant role in stabilizing household income, particularly for the poorest.
  • The paper suggests that remittances are more important for rural households and for those in lower income deciles.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that remittances have a pro-poor effect on inequality in Mexico, especially during times of crisis. As migration becomes more widespread, the insurance role of remittances strengthens, offering greater support to the poorest households. The use of counterfactual analysis helps to isolate the true impact of remittances, showing that they significantly lower inequality compared to a scenario without migration and remittances.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Demographic characteristics of Mexican immigrants in the United States, showing a shift in age and education over time.
• Table 2: Characteristics of remittance-receiving and non-remittance-receiving households in Mexico, highlighting differences in household size, composition, and income.
• Table 3 and 4: Determinants of remittances by income decile before, during, and after the Peso Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, respectively.
• Figures 1-4: Illustrate trends in remittances and their impact on inequality across different time periods and income groups.