2010年-世界发展银行全球_Maldives_Economic_Update_September_2010_12页_885kb

Maldives Economic Update Summary (September 2010)

Core Content

The Maldives Economic Update for September 2010 outlines the country's economic performance, policy actions, and future outlook following the global financial crisis. The report highlights the recovery in tourism, fiscal consolidation efforts, monetary policy adjustments, and challenges posed by the political environment and external economic conditions.

Main Economic Developments

• Tourism Recovery:
  Tourism has rebounded significantly since August 2009, with tourist arrivals increasing by 29% year-on-year in July 2010. The total arrivals for the first seven months of 2010 reached 440,000, setting a record. This rebound is expected to drive real GDP growth to around 4%, up from a 3.1% contraction in 2009.

  • The growth in arrivals is attributed to a shift in the source of tourists, with China becoming the largest source, surpassing the UK.
  • The average duration of stay has marginally dropped, but the increase in bed-nights suggests a positive trend in tourism activity.
  • Occupancy rates are down compared to previous years, due to added capacity.

• Fisheries Sector:
  The decline in fish-catch levels (25% in Jan-July 2010) and fish purchases (13% drop) has contributed to a modest negative impact on real GDP growth.

  • Fish exports fell by 8% during the same period, and earnings from fish exports declined by 5% to US$36.7 million.
  • The drop in fish-catch is attributed to uncertain causes, possibly related to changing ocean currents and rising fuel costs.

• Fiscal Performance:
  The fiscal deficit in the first seven months of 2010 was Rfy 1.68 billion, below the budgeted target of Rfy 1.94 billion and the 2009 actual of Rfy 2.26 billion.

  • Total revenue reached Rfy 3.6 billion, 10% above the 2009 level, but still 12% below the budget.
  • The government remains committed to fiscal consolidation, including maintaining public sector pay cuts despite legal challenges.

• New Fiscal Measures:

  • The Tourist Goods and Services Tax (TGST), a 3.5% ad-valorem tax on all tourist spending, was signed into law and will take effect on January 1, 2011.
  • The Second Amendment to the Tourism Act replaces resort lease rent with land rent, which is expected to generate lower revenues.
  • The Business Profits Tax (BPT) has not been passed yet, delaying its implementation and affecting fiscal outcomes.

• Monetary Policy:

  • Deficit monetization was halted in September 2009, and treasury auctions were introduced in December 2009.
  • Interest rates are market-determined, and Open Market Operations (OMO) have been used to drain excess liquidity.
  • Inflation remains modest, with headline inflation at 6.3% in August 2010. The gap between atoll and Male inflation is due to differing CPI baskets.

• Current Account Deficit:

  • The current account deficit widened to US$506.5 million in Jan-July 2010, driven by higher import growth (12.3%) than export growth (9%).
  • The deficit is expected to narrow to 27% of GDP in 2010, supported by higher tourism inflows.

• Private Sector Credit:

  • Private sector credit (PSC) has been contracting since the GFC, but saw a 1.5% growth in July 2010, mainly from the resort sector.
  • PSC is expected to remain subdued, with limited recovery in the short term.

• Political and Policy Challenges:

  • The political environment remains turbulent, with unresolved issues such as the government's appeal to the Supreme Court on wage restoration.
  • Reconciliation efforts between the ruling MDP and the opposition-led parliament are ongoing, which could affect policy implementation.

• World Bank Assistance:

  • The World Bank has approved several projects to support economic stabilization and recovery, including a pension project, an integrated human development project, and an economic stabilization and recovery credit.
  • The economic stabilization and recovery credit aims to support public financial management, public enterprise reform, and social protection initiatives.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: Expected to rebound to about 4% in 2010, compared to a 3.1% contraction in 2009.
• Fiscal Deficit: Reduced to 15.5% of GDP in July 2010, against a target of 18.2%.
• Tourism Tax (TGST): A 3.5% ad-valorem tax on tourism-related goods and services, set to begin in 2011.
• Political Climate: Unstable, with unresolved wage disputes and ongoing reconciliation efforts.
• Current Account Deficit: Widened to 27% of GDP in 2010, but expected to narrow with increased tourism inflows.
• Private Sector Credit: Contracted by 4% in 2009 and 1% by July 2010, but showed signs of improvement in July.
• Exchange Rate: The rufiyaa has depreciated against several currencies, except the euro, which saw a 13% appreciation.
• World Bank Projects: Includes mobile-phone banking, integrated human development, environmental management, and pension reform.

Conclusion

The Maldives is on a path of economic recovery, with tourism rebounding strongly and fiscal consolidation efforts showing initial success. However, the country faces ongoing challenges, including a turbulent political environment, a widening current account deficit, and subdued private sector credit. The implementation of new fiscal measures and continued policy coordination will be crucial for sustaining the recovery and achieving macroeconomic stability in the medium term.