2011年-世界发展银行全球_Maldives_Economic_Update_September_2011_14页_843kb

Maldives Economic Update Summary (September 2011)

Core Content

The Maldives Economic Update for September 2011 highlights the country's economic performance, fiscal challenges, and ongoing reforms. The report outlines the key drivers of growth, the impact of international commodity prices and exchange rate changes, and the government's efforts to improve fiscal sustainability.

Main Economic Developments

Real GDP Growth

• Real GDP growth in 2011 is estimated at 8.3%, down from 9.9% in 2010, but remains robust.
• The tourism sector continues to be a major contributor to growth, with tourist arrivals increasing by 18.3% in the first seven months of 2011, surpassing 500,000 arrivals.
• Total bed-nights grew by 10.5% due to a 4% increase in average bed capacity, mainly from three new resorts.
• Chinese tourist arrivals are increasingly filling the gap left by European tourists during the summer season, reducing seasonal fluctuations.

Inflation and Exchange Rate

• Consumer price inflation in Male reached 12.9% in May 2011, and remained around 12.8% in September.
• Food and fuel prices, which make up nearly 40% of the CPI basket, have seen significant increases.
• The Maldivian Rufiyaa (MVR) was devalued in April 2011, shifting to a managed float regime with a 20% band around the old rate. The MVR is now trading at the upper end of this band, with a 10% parallel market premium.
• The IMF estimates that the exchange rate pass-through into CPI is approximately 80%, meaning a 1% depreciation could raise consumer prices by 0.8%.

Fiscal Situation

Fiscal Consolidation

• Fiscal consolidation remains the top policy priority for the Maldivian authorities.
• The government is discussing an IMF program to ensure medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability.
• The fiscal deficit (inclusive of grants) was 12.7% of GDP in 2010, compared to 23.4% in 2009, showing some improvement.
• Despite this, the fiscal deficit remains unsustainable, with government expenditures accounting for over 45% of GDP and nearly 70% of total revenues.

Revenue and Expenditure

• Total revenue (inclusive of grants) in the first half of 2011 reached Rfy $4.0Bn, a 40% increase from the same period in 2010.
• Tax revenues rose by 69% to Rfy $2.3Bn, largely due to the introduction of the Tourism Goods and Services Tax (TGST), which contributed US$29.9 million in 1H11.
• Import duties increased by 25%, also boosting tax revenues.
• Non-tax revenue contracted by only 1% in 1H11, with resort lease receipts declining by 7%.
• Overall fiscal deficit in 1H11 was 4.0% of GDP, compared to 9.9% in 1H10, showing improvement.

Expenditure Control

• The government introduced a Voluntary Retirement Scheme (VRS) in mid-2011, with over 1,500 applications received from the 35,000-strong public sector.
• Nearly 50% of applicants chose Option 4, which includes access to government scholarships, while 30% opted for Option 2 (lump sum payment) and 20% for Option 3 (SME loan priority).
• The VRS is expected to save the government Rfy $250Mn in 2011, but could lead to capacity loss in key sectors like health and education.

Debt and Balance of Payments

Public Debt Dynamics

• Public debt is projected to rise to 306% of GDP by 2030 under current policies, indicating an unsustainable path.
• The risk of public external debt distress has increased from moderate to high since the 2009 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA).
• Key risks include export shocks and fiscal policy slippages, which could increase financing requirements.

Balance of Payments

• The trade deficit widened to over 60% of GDP in the first half of 2011, up from 40% in 2010.
• Foreign exchange reserves, which had been boosted by one-off privatization receipts, have resumed their downward trend, now standing at nearly 3 months of imports.
• Usable reserves (excluding short-term liabilities) are about a third of this level.
• Domestic financing is expected to cover 75% of the fiscal deficit in 2011, with the rest from foreign sources.
• The domestic banking sector has absorbed most of the domestic financing, but has shown reluctance to hold more government securities, leading to a decline in the Government Securities to Total Assets (GSTA) ratio.

Economic Reforms

Tax Reforms

• The government introduced a new Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Tourism Goods and Services Tax (TGST) as part of the Economic Reforms Package (ERP).
• The GST is set at 3.5% for 2011, increasing to 6% in 2012 and 8% in 2013.
• The TGST is included in the broader GST framework.
• The Personal Income Tax (PIT) Bill introduces a progressive tax system for wage earners, with rates ranging from 3% to 15%.
• The Corporate Profit Tax Bill simplifies the current tax regime and taxes banks under the new system.

Other Reforms

• The Tax Administration Act was amended to streamline tax procedures.
• The government is also considering reducing customs duties on a range of goods, which could impact revenue from this source.

World Bank Assistance

• The World Bank has supported the Maldives through several IDA operations and a development policy loan.
• Current projects include:
  • Mobile phone banking: US$7.7 million approved in 2008.
  • Environmental management: US$13.2 million approved in 2008.
  • Pension and social protection: US$3.8 million approved in 2009, with an additional $12 million approved in 2011.
• A development policy credit was approved in 2010 to support economic stabilization and recovery, focusing on public financial management, public enterprise reform, and social protection.

Key Economic Indicators

Outlook

• The three main risks to the economic outlook are: (1) a deepening growth slowdown in Europe, (2) continued rising international commodity prices, and (3) failure to present a 2012 budget that reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio.
• The government is expected to finalize the ERP measures, including the GST, CPT, and PIT Bills, by November 2011.
• Discussions with the IMF on a program of support are expected to resume later in the year to address fiscal and debt sustainability concerns.