2026世界核能展望报告_106页_9mb

World Nuclear Outlook Report Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the World Nuclear Association in January 2026, provides an in-depth analysis of the global nuclear energy outlook, focusing on capacity expansion, reactor technology, and the role of nuclear energy in achieving climate and energy security goals. It highlights the importance of nuclear energy as a low-carbon electricity source and outlines the necessary steps for its continued growth.

Main Points

1. Global Nuclear Capacity Outlook

• Projected Capacity by 2050: The total global nuclear capacity could reach 1446 GWe by 2050, surpassing the 1200 GWe target from the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy launched at COP28 in 2023.
• Sources of Growth: Most growth to 2030 will come from reactors already under construction; planned projects will drive expansion to 2035; and proposed, potential, and government-driven programs will account for the increase after 2035.
• Leading Countries: China, France, India, Russia, and the USA are expected to account for nearly 980 GW of total nuclear capacity by 2050.
• Newcomer Nations: Emerging nuclear countries have ambitions for 157 GWe by 2050, indicating growing interest beyond traditional nuclear operators.
• Construction Rates: To meet the 2050 target, the annual grid connection rate needs to increase significantly, reaching 65.3 GWe/yr by 2046–2050, which is double the historic peak from the 1980s.

2. Reactor Long-Term Operation

• Extended Lifetimes: Extending reactor operation to 60–80 years could contribute more than one-quarter of the 2050 nuclear capacity, adding up to 213 GWe.
• Performance Data: There is no age-related decline in reactor capacity factors, and the average age of permanently shut-down reactors has increased to 48 years in 2024.
• Cost-Effectiveness: Operating lifetime extension remains one of the most cost-effective ways to secure additional low-carbon electricity.

3. Current Nuclear Fleet

• Reactor Types: Over 70% of operable reactors are PWRs, with BWRs at 14%, PHWRs at 11%, and smaller reactors at 2%.
• Capacity Distribution: As of 1 October 2025, there are 438 operable reactors with a total capacity of 397 GWe.
• Recent Trends: PWRs continue to dominate, with 55 of the last 59 reactors built being PWRs.

4. Reactor Sizes

• Trend Towards Larger Reactors: Reactors built in the 1970s have an average capacity of 1000 MWe, and this trend continues.
• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): While less common, SMRs are being deployed in some countries, such as China and Russia.
• Future Outlook: SMRs may see a resurgence, but larger reactors will likely continue to dominate new capacity additions.

5. Short-Term Capacity Additions

• Under Construction: As of 1 October 2025, 70 reactors with a combined capacity of 78 GWe are under construction.
• Leading Countries: China leads with 38 GWe under construction, followed by Egypt, India, Russia, and Turkey.
• Restarting Reactors: Some reactors in the USA, Japan, and others are being prepared for restart, which could add to capacity before 2030.

Key Information

• Nuclear Contribution: In 2024, nuclear supplied 9% of global electricity, down from 17% in the mid-1990s.
• Energy Demand Trends: Five major trends will drive electricity and energy demand by 2050, including expanding access to electricity, meeting population needs, accelerating electrification, and decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors.
• Climate Goals: Nuclear energy is recognized as a critical component in achieving deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as noted in the Global Stocktake agreement at COP28.
• Fuel Demand: The report also outlines the impact of nuclear expansion on fuel demand and highlights the need for a robust nuclear fuel supply chain.

Recommendations

For Governments

• Recognize nuclear as a key component in climate and energy security strategies.
• Integrate nuclear into long-term decarbonization and energy security planning.
• Set durable and actionable nuclear policies and industrial strategies.
• Support lifetime extension programs to avoid premature closures.
• Reform electricity markets to ensure equitable treatment of nuclear alongside other low-carbon sources.
• Accelerate licensing, siting, and financing mechanisms.

For Financial Institutions

• Implement technology-neutral lending and ESG policies.
• Support nuclear deployment in emerging economies through financing frameworks and multilateral partnerships.

For the Nuclear Industry

• Expand manufacturing and supply chain capacity.
• Optimize series build to reduce costs and shorten construction times.
• Develop large-scale deployment strategies, including non-grid applications using novel reactor technologies.

Conclusion

The report concludes that national nuclear capacity goals to 2050 exceed the global tripling target, reflecting strong alignment with global decarbonization needs. Achieving these goals will require unprecedented construction rates, strategic lifetime extensions, and significant policy and market reforms. If nations deliver on their commitments, nuclear power will play a critical role in ensuring secure, affordable, and net-zero-compatible energy for the global economy.