2002年-世界发展银行全球_Agenda_for_Water_Sector_Strategy_for_North_China___Summary_Report_160页_9mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Water Sector Strategy for North China (Report No. 22040-CHA)

Core Content

This report outlines the Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China, focusing on the Hai, Huai, and Yellow (3-H) river basins. It addresses the critical challenges of water scarcity, flood management, agricultural water use, water pollution, and groundwater depletion. The report also proposes a comprehensive action plan to improve water resource management in the region, emphasizing the need for institutional reforms, economic measures, and technical interventions.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Water Scarcity and Economic Impact

Water scarcity is a serious limitation to economic and social development in North China.
The 3-H basins contain only 10% of China's water resources but support 45% of the population, 40% of the cultivated land, and 31% of the gross industrial output.
Water shortages are growing in severity and frequency due to population growth and industrial expansion.
In 2000, the water shortage was 37 Bcm, and it is projected to reach 56.5 Bcm by 2050 unless significant interventions are made.

2. Current and Projected Water Demand and Supply

Water demand is expected to increase due to population and economic growth.
Water supply is constrained, with only 132 Bcm per year available in 2000.
The action plan proposes measures such as raising water prices, improving irrigation efficiency, and reusing treated wastewater to manage demand and supply.

3. Water Pollution

Surface and groundwater pollution are major environmental and public health concerns.
Over 80% of river lengths in the Hai and Huai basins are very highly polluted, rendering them unusable for any beneficial purpose.
COD (Combined Oxygen Demand) is a key pollutant, with 12.2 million tons generated in 2000.
Rural sources contribute over 50% of the COD load, which is largely unregulated.
The economic cost of not treating wastewater is estimated at ¥4.0 billion in 2000, rising to ¥23 billion by 2050.

4. Flood Management

Floods and flood damage are significant issues in the 3-H basins.
Annual flood damage reached ¥30.7 billion between 1990 and 1997 and is increasing.
The flood protection standard is critical, and the report emphasizes the need for appropriate standards and integrated flood control methodologies.

5. Groundwater Depletion

Groundwater is being overused to compensate for surface water scarcity and pollution.
Groundwater levels have dropped significantly, especially in the Hai Basin.
The report highlights the need for groundwater management and institutional reforms to ensure sustainable use.

6. Agricultural Impacts

Irrigated agriculture is a major user of water, contributing to two-thirds of agricultural production in the 3-H basins.
Irrigation water shortages are projected to reach 41.1 Bcm by 2050.
Efficiency improvements, land improvement, and system rehabilitation are proposed to reduce this shortage.
The full package of measures would reduce the shortage to 28 Bcm by 2050, but grain production would decline by 9 million tons (7%) due to shifts to higher-value crops.

7. Institutional and Policy Recommendations

Fragmented institutional mandates and overlapping jurisdictions hinder effective water management.
The action plan includes structural, policy, and nonstructural changes.
Institutional reforms are necessary to ensure coherent and integrated water management.
Water pricing reforms, demand management, and private sector participation are emphasized.

8. Proposed Action Plans

The report includes separate action plans for:
- Water Resources
- Flood Control
- Agriculture
- Nonstructural Pollution Control
- Structural Pollution Control
- Wastewater Reuse
- Groundwater Management
- Institutional Management

9. South-North Water Transfer (S-N Transfer)

The S-N transfer is proposed as a key supply augmentation measure.
It would reduce priority water shortages by 88%, from 2 Bcm per year to 28 Bcm.
The transfer is economically justified and directed towards urban industry and domestic use, not irrigated agriculture.

Conclusion

The report concludes that integrated and sustainable water management is essential for the continued development of North China. The proposed action plan includes price increases, efficiency improvements, wastewater reuse, and S-N transfer to address the acute water shortages and pollution. These measures are expected to reduce water shortages by 26% and avert serious economic and social distress in the 3-H basins. However, political and financial commitment is required to ensure their successful implementation.

Methodology and Tools

A constrained optimization model was used to assess water resource allocation and maximize economic benefits.
A knowledge-based model was designed for water pollution analysis to account for spatial and temporal uncertainties.
Institutional issues were reviewed using expert knowledge and existing literature.
The study team included consultants from AusAID, MWR, and the World Bank, with specialized studies on various aspects of the water sector.