央行数字货币的货币政策含义-英-43页_1mb

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) and Their Implications for Monetary Policy

• Design Features:

  • Retail CBDCs (general purpose) carry higher risks for monetary policy implementation in terms of deposit disintermediation compared to wholesale CBDCs.

  • Unremunerated and two-tier distribution models are under discussion globally, aiming to limit disruption.

• Monetary Policy Implications:

  • Retail CBDCs:

    • Can lead to changes in portfolio holdings (cash, deposits), affecting money velocity (V), deposit disintermediation, commercial bank reserve volatility, and potentially breaking the stable relationship between money supply and inflation, thereby weakening the effectiveness of money targeting regimes.
    • Deposit disintermediation risks are higher in banking systems dominated by small retail transaction deposits and the predominance of unremunerated demand deposits in Islamic financial systems.

  • Wholesale CBDC (w-CBDC)设计:

    • Primarily affects payment and settlement systems efficiency rather than direct monetary policy implementation via balance sheet effects.
    • DLT-enabled programmability (tokenization) enhances efficiency in areas like securities settlement but carries risks of financial market segmentation and reduced efficiency gains.

• Cross-border Use:

  • Use of CBDCs in cross-border payments could increase currency substitution risks in recipient countries, amplify capital flow volatility, and constrain the domestic monetary policy authorities capacity to control money and exchange rates.
  • Technical, legal, interoperability, and geopolitical hurdles could delay the realization of these risks.

• Deposits Disintermediation:

  • This remains a primary risk irrespective of CBDC design features. While design choices like caps or non-remunerated design moderate the risks, substantial residual risks exist.

• Money Velocity:

  • An increase in money velocity could erode the effectiveness of money targeting regimes, particularly if this change is structural and disrupts the historical relationship between money supply and nominal GDP.

• Islamic Banking Systems:

  • Islamic banks face specific challenges due to the prohibition on interest (Riba) and tendencies towards higher reserves. Unremunerated deposits constitute a large share of liabilities, making the system more vulnerable to disintermediation.
  • Diverse Islamic finance systems require tailored analysis and regulatory frameworks for CBDC integration.

Enforcement and Further Research

• Implementation strategies need to focus on mitigating systemic risks.
• CBDC design constraints on controlling disintermediation might face operational challenges.
• Further research is needed particularly into:
  • Market fragmentation effects from tokenization.
  • The role of programmability in capital flow volatility.
  • Market access for non-local banks in cross-border CBDC schemes.

In summary: CBDCs threaten to alter traditional payment channels and portfolio management, potentially weakening key aspects of monetary policy transmission and affecting inflation/income targeting frameworks if deposit disintermediation or changes in velocity materialize broadly. Careful design and ongoing empirical monitoring are crucial to manage these unintended consequences.