德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：由于经济强劲增长，美联储对通货膨胀更加信心十足-20180226-6页_629kb

Fed Watcher Summary: Minutes Lean Hawkish Amid Strong Growth and Inflation Confidence

Core Content

The DB Fed Watcher report, dated February 26, 2018, analyzes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and highlights the Fed's evolving stance on monetary policy in the context of strong economic growth and increased confidence in inflation control. The report outlines key takeaways from the minutes, insights from individual Fed officials, and a policy rule dashboard to help investors understand the current monetary policy environment.

Main Points

• Growth Outlook: The FOMC minutes indicate a stronger growth outlook than the previous December meeting.
• Inflation Confidence: The Fed is more confident about inflation, though some members still express concerns, particularly before seeing stronger data.
• Phillips Curve: Most Fed officials believe the Phillips curve (the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation) is still valid.
• Policy Hikes: The DB View remains unchanged, projecting 4 interest rate hikes in 2018 and 3 in 2019.
• Fedspeak Analysis: The minutes suggest a hawkish bias, with some officials cautioning against too many hikes and others indicating that further hikes are consistent with the current path.

Key Insights from Fed Officials

Policy Rule Dashboard

The report includes a policy rule dashboard, which provides key interest rate benchmarks based on current economic conditions:

Note: HLW = r from Holston, Laubach and Williams (2003)*

Events to Watch

• February 26:
  • Bullard: Discusses economy and monetary policy
  • Quarles: Assesses the economy
• February 27:
  • Powell: Congressional testimony

Important Disclosures

• The report contains important disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest and the nature of recommendations.
• Deutsche Bank may act as principal or agent in transactions related to the securities discussed.
• Recommendations may vary based on different research products, time horizons, and methodologies.
• Investors are advised to make independent decisions and consult with financial advisors.

Disclaimer

• The Deutsche Bank Research Department is independent of other business divisions.
• Opinions and estimates are based on current analysis and may change without notice.
• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments.
• Investors should review the full disclosures before making investment decisions.

Legal and Regulatory Information

The report includes regulatory and legal information for various jurisdictions, including the U.S., Germany, the U.K., Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, South Africa, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Australia and New Zealand. It emphasizes that the report is intended for sophisticated investors and may not be suitable for retail or non-accredited investors.

Conclusion

The FOMC minutes suggest a more confident stance on inflation and a hawkish policy outlook, with a continued focus on gradual interest rate hikes. While there is some internal debate on the pace of tightening, the overall consensus supports a measured approach to monetary policy. Investors should remain aware of the dynamic nature of Fed policy and the potential risks associated with fixed-income and derivative instruments.