2025-05-24-Jefferies-拉姆科水泥（TRCL）_令人失望的第四季度_南方定价将助力第一季度_12页_575kb

Summary of Ramco Ciments Equity Research Report (Jefferies, May 25, 2025)

Key Rating and Changes

• Rating: HOLD, revised from previous stance.
• Price Target: Cut from INR 845 to INR 930, a -8% adjustment based on unit EBITDA improvement assumptions.
• Estimate Changes: FY26/FY27 volume estimates decapped by ~8% factoring pricing improvement, with maintenance of HOLD due to current CMP reflecting expected profitability gains.

Recent Performance Highlights

• 4QFY25 significantly below estimates: Unit EBITDA at Rs615 vs est Rs770, EBITDA Rs3.21bn (-23% YoY), volumes -4% YoY.
• Weak volumes attributed to competitor ramp-up in South India, loss of market share, and sector fragmentation.
• PAT at Rs202mn (-83% YoY) impacted by higher depreciation from new facilities and lower realizations (-0.5% QoQ).
• Regional focus on South and East India masks mixed trends: B2C volumes down in South, B2B in East.

Future Outlook and Assumptions

• Q1 FY26 Expectation: Pricing relief (+10-15% QoQ) driven by improved pricing discipline in South India, potentially boosting revenue.
• Growth Drivers: Capacity expansion (30 MTPA by Mar-2026), rural housing demand, and green cement initiatives.
• Risks to Sustainability: Competitive pressures in fragmented Southern market, delayed deleveraging, and higher volatility in earnings due to volume mix shifts.
• Base Case Scenarios: Volume CAGR 8% FY25-2027, unit EBITDA Rs935/T; upside assumes 12% CAGR and Rs1000/T; downside projects 4% CAGR and Rs780/T.

Financial Analysis and Health

• Revenue growth moderate, FY25 EBITDA Rs12.3bn (-21% YoY); cost pressures from fuel and freight contributed to lower margins.
• Capex plan: Rs10.24bn FY25, targeting Rs12bn FY26 for expansion, including wind power acquisitions.
• Debt reduction achieved (Net debt Rs44.8bn, down YoY), with monetization of non-core assets progressing.
• Sustainability efforts: Green cement production, carbon reduction targets (SBTi/TCFD aligned), focusing on ESG through responsible power sourcing.

Risks and Valuation Summary

• Key Upside Risks: Strong demand pickup in Southern states, sustained price recovery.
• Key Downside Risks: Immediate price hikes reversal, further volume deterioration from competitor actions.
• Valuation: PT INR930 based on 13x FY27E EV/EBITDA; outlook cautious due to pricing uncertainty and earnings sustainability.