2025-05-18-Jefferies-迪维实验室（DIVI）_第四季度业绩符合预期_估值令人担忧；持有_13页_740kb

Divi's Laboratories Equity Research Summary

Overview

• Jefferies maintains a Hold rating** for Divi's Laboratories** as of May 18, 2025.
• The price target (PT) is INR 6,200, a small revision from the previous PT (INR 6,280, representing a ~1% decrease).
• The 52-week range is INR 3,870.00 - INR 6,448.75.
• Key concerns include: high valuation (approx 51x FY27E PE) and near-term patent challenges.

Financial Performance (FY25)

• 4Q25 results met Jefferies' estimates.
• Revenue: INR 25.9 billion (~+12% YoY/+11% QoQ).
• EBITDA: INR 8.9 billion (~+21% YoY/+19% QoQ).
• PAT: INR 6.6 billion (~+23% YoY/+12% QoQ), slightly above estimate.

Business Segments

• Generics: Continues growth (13% YoY volume-driven sales in 4Q).
  • Competitive intensity ("pricing pressure"), patent expiries (e.g., Sacubitril Valsartan) are challenges.
  • Focuses on launching new generics off-patent; avoiding generic Semaglutide opportunities.
• Custom Synthesis: 12% YoY growth in 4Q.
  • Capacity expansion for two projects (capex: INR 6.5–7 bn each); ramp-up expected late 2026/early 2027.
• Nutaceuticals: 9% YoY growth (~INR 2 billion in 4Q).
• Exports: 88% of FY25 sales; US and EU account for 73% of exports.

Valuation & Targets

• PT based on 50x FY27E EPS (~50x INR123.9); share price targets range from INR5,530 to INR6,890.
• EBITDA Margin: Improving (4QFY25: 34.3%).
• Rev/CAGR (FY25-27): 14% (base) /16% (upside) /12% (downside).

Analyst Recommendations & Risks

Upside Risks:

• Faster custom synthesis ramp-up.
• Higher market share in generics on patent expirations.
• Diversification from China.

Downside Risks:

• Patent expiry of key molecules (e.g., sacubitril valsartan).
• Lower-than-expected market size for custom synthesis.
• Intense competition in new generic segments.

Other Concerns: Water/wastewater management as a sustainability and regulatory issue.

Investment Thesis

• Hold: Generics/CDMO leader benefits from China diversification, but unsustainable valuation.
• Focus stays on custom synthesis and new patented drugs in nutraceuticals.