2019-07-12_DTZ戴德梁行_Industrial_Q4_2018_Kansas_City_4页_723kb
报告摘要
Kansas City Industrial Market Q4 2018 Summary
Core Content
The Kansas City Industrial Market experienced a strong year in Q4 2018, marked by significant net absorption and steady leasing activity. The market showed resilience despite some macroeconomic challenges and uncertainties, such as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and Brexit negotiations. The overall market was characterized by a shift in focus towards speculative construction and high-quality, new space that met the needs of growing tenants.
Key Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Q4 2017 | Q4 2018 | 12-Month Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Employment | 1,091.8k | 1,109.2k | ▲ |
| Kansas City Unemployment | 3.8% | 3.2% | ■ |
| U.S. Unemployment | 4.1% | 3.7% | ▼ |
- The employment rate in Kansas City increased slightly, while the unemployment rate decreased.
- The U.S. unemployment rate also declined, reflecting a strong national economy.
- Despite these positive trends, the market faces challenges in 2019, including potential slowdowns in net absorption.
Market Overview
- 2017-2018 were the most successful years for the Kansas City industrial market in history.
- Over 14.4 million square feet (msf) of space was added to inventory in the two years.
- Net absorption totaled 16.2 msf during this period, with a 6.9% increase in market size.
- Vacancy rates fell from 8.3% to 7.0%, indicating strong demand and market health.
Submarket Performance
| Submarket | Total Buildings | Inventory (SF) | YTD User Sales Activity (SF) | Vacancy Rate | Net Absorption (SF) | Under Construction (SF) | Avg. Rent (MF) | Avg. Rent (OS) | Avg. Rent (WD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | 970 | 70,077,897 | 797,130 | 9.4% | 3,877,534 | 1,085,088 | $6.43 | $6.93 | $4.24 |
| Wyandotte County | 391 | 32,367,387 | 143,833 | 5.6% | 409,853 | - | $4.00 | n/a | $3.88 |
| Executive Park / Northland Park | 182 | 17,547,193 | 291,643 | 4.5% | 1,351,301 | 1,217,783 | n/a | $5.48 | $4.24 |
| Jackson County | 822 | 57,191,458 | 2,212,084 | 5.5% | 611,414 | 704,489 | $4.15 | $7.65 | $3.25 |
| North Kansas City | 251 | 15,016,397 | - | 8.3% | -339,408 | - | n/a | $4.57 | $3.11 |
| KCI | 65 | 6,716,813 | - | 6.3% | 649,370 | - | n/a | $6.40 | $4.63 |
| Riverside | 55 | 5,415,276 | - | 11.1% | 351,737 | 134,000 | $3.99 | $5.18 | $4.68 |
| Other Northland | 86 | 17,254,996 | - | 5.3% | 98,736 | - | n/a | n/a | $3.26 |
| Cass County | 12 | 752,515 | - | 0.0% | - | - | n/a | n/a | n/a |
- Johnson County had the highest inventory and net absorption, while Riverside showed a higher vacancy rate.
- Northland Park and Executive Park saw strong leasing activity, with new speculative buildings being absorbed quickly.
- Speculative construction has decreased slightly, but demand remains strong for smaller, high-quality spaces.
Key Lease Transactions (Q4 2018)
| Property | SF | Tenant | Transaction Type | Submarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9700 Lackman Road | 304,840 | Gear for Sports | Leased | Johnson County |
| Northland Park #4 | 303,622 | Ford Motor Company | Leased | Northland Park |
| Lenexa Logistics Centre North | 160,000 | Sportsman Cap | Leased | Johnson County |
| Platte Valley Industrial Center #5 | 85,360 | Marcon | Leased | Riverside |
| Northland Park #2 | 69,382 | Symbia Fulfillment Services | Leased | Northland Park |
| Northland Park #3 | 55,974 | National Fleet Systems | Leased | Northland Park |
| 3011 E Geospace Drive | 49,400 | Red Carpet Services | Leased | Jackson County |
| 1821 Bedford | 37,858 | Liberty Exposition Services | Leased | North Kansas City |
- These transactions highlight the continued demand for speculative space, particularly in Northland Park and Johnson County.
- Major tenants like Ford Motor Company and Sportsman Cap were involved in significant leasing activities.
Key Sales Transactions (Q4 2018)
| Property | SF | Seller/Buyer | Investor/User | Submarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olathe Distribution Center | 601,829 | Sun Life Assurance/Sealy & Co | Investor | Johnson County |
| Executive Park Interstate Center | 173,000 | MSTB KC/SR Realty Trust | Investor | Executive Park |
| 11550 Renner Boulevard | 124,772 | Silpada Designs/Heart-to-Heart International | User | Johnson County |
| Executive Park Business Center | 87,292 | Colony/TAK | Investor | Executive Park |
- Investor activity was prominent, with several large properties being sold.
- Some sales involved user-to-user transactions, indicating a shift in ownership structure.
Outlook
- Build-to-suit projects are expected to increase under construction in 2019, particularly in Logistics Park Kansas City.
- Class B warehouses may face challenges in backfilling space as tenants move to newer, speculative developments.
- Southview Commerce Center in Belton is set to expand with more buildings, focusing on smaller spaces (500,000 sf and under).
- The Federal Reserve 10th District Manufacturing Survey indicates some concern about international trade, which may impact the industrial sector in 2019.
Conclusion
The Kansas City industrial market in Q4 2018 showed strong performance with continued net absorption and robust leasing activity. While the market is expected to slow in 2019 due to external economic factors, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. Developers are shifting focus towards smaller, high-quality speculative spaces, which are in demand by tenants looking for flexible and modern facilities. The market is evolving, and the future looks promising despite the challenges ahead.
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