2015-12-31-莱坊-India_Residential_Investment_Advisory_Report_2016_147页_12mb

报告摘要

Summary of Residential Investment Advisory Report 2016

Core Content

This report identifies the top residential investment destinations in India for the next five years (2016-2020) based on a combination of economic, infrastructural, and demographic factors. It aims to provide investors with a clear understanding of which areas are likely to offer the best price appreciation and returns, while also highlighting the risks and challenges that may affect the residential market.

Main Points

Residential Market Slowdown: The Indian residential sector has experienced a significant slowdown in demand and price growth over the past few years. The revival expected due to economic optimism post the new government formation did not materialize, with homebuyer interest still low due to issues like stalled projects, unaffordable prices, and developer credibility.
Office Market Recovery: In contrast, the office space market has seen a remarkable recovery, with vacancy levels expected to hit a new low. However, this recovery has not translated into the residential sector yet.
Price Performance: The weighted average price in six major cities (Mumbai, NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, Chennai, and Hyderabad) increased between 12% to 23% from 2012 to 2015, while consumer price inflation was higher at 24%. This indicates that real estate has not kept pace with inflation.
Revised Investment Destinations: The report revisits and updates previously recommended residential investment locations, identifying 11 new top destinations across the six cities. These locations are expected to offer superior price appreciation over the next five years.
Methodology: A two-tiered approach was used:
- Top-down approach: Identified the top six cities based on population, economic activity, and infrastructure development.
- Bottom-up approach: Analyzed zones within these cities and selected specific investment destinations based on employment growth, infrastructure development, and social amenities.
Investment Strategy: The report recommends a differentiated investment approach:
- Buy: For destinations with high projected price appreciation.
- Hold: For those with marginal appreciation above the city's average.
- Sell: For those with appreciation below the city's average.

Key Investment Destinations (Top 11)

Rank	Location	City	2015 Avg Price (₹/sq ft)	2020E Avg Price (₹/sq ft)	Price Growth (2015-2020)	CAGR
1	Madh - Marve	Mumbai	13,500	26,200	94%	14.2%
2	Ulwe	Mumbai	6,000	10,200	70%	11.2%
3	New Airport Road, Viman Nagar	Pune	7,250	11,800	63%	10.2%
4	Panathur - Varthur	Bengaluru	4,350	7,000	61%	10.0%
5	Majiwada - Kasarvadavali	Mumbai	8,000	12,700	59%	9.7%
6	Vishrantwadi	Pune	6,200	9,700	56%	9.4%
7	Thanisandra	Bengaluru	4,800	7,450	55%	9.2%
8	New Gurgaon (sectors 81-95)	NCR	4,700	6,900	47%	8.0%
9	Guindy - Alandur cluster	Chennai	7,500	10,900	45%	7.8%
10	Golf Course Extension	NCR	8,300	11,800	42%	7.3%
11	Puppalguda - Narsingi	Hyderabad	2,900	4,100	41%	7.2%

Key Factors Influencing Price Appreciation

Employment Generation: Driver industries such as IT/ITeS have a significant impact on residential price growth due to increased employment opportunities and migration.
Infrastructure Development: Connectivity with major employment hubs, availability of social and physical infrastructure, and planned developments are critical in determining future price movements.
Lifestyle Changes: Areas that offer high-rise developments with premium amenities are likely to see increased demand.
Land Availability: Limited land can lead to upward pressure on property prices.
Proximity to Premium Office Markets: Areas near thriving business districts tend to appreciate faster.

Risk Factors

Dependence on IT/ITeS Sector: The report's forecast is heavily reliant on the growth of the IT/ITeS sector. Any slowdown in this sector could impact employment and, consequently, property prices.
Market Saturation: Some previously recommended locations have seen limited growth due to market saturation or lack of development.
Regulatory and Legal Issues: Litigations and legal challenges can affect the credibility and performance of residential markets.
Supply Glut: An oversupply of new projects in some areas may lead to price stagnation.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that real estate investment should be based on sound research and analysis rather than speculation. It provides a structured framework for identifying investment opportunities in the residential sector, focusing on areas that are poised for significant price appreciation due to strong employment and infrastructure fundamentals. Investors are encouraged to consider these destinations for long-term returns, while being mindful of the risks associated with market dynamics and regulatory environments.

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