2012年-世界发展银行全球_Public_Expenditure_Review_Summary___Social_Assistance_Program_and_Public_Expenditure_Review_1_30页_1mb

Public Expenditure Review Summary: Social Assistance Program and Public Expenditure Review 1

Core Content

This document provides an overview of public expenditures on social assistance (SA) in Indonesia, focusing on the central and sub-national levels, and highlights the trends and challenges in the sector. It is part of the Protecting Poor and Vulnerable Households in Indonesia report by the World Bank.

Main Points

• Increase in SA Expenditures: Public expenditures on household-based social assistance in Indonesia have significantly increased since 2005, primarily due to central government investments.
• Fiscal Position: Indonesia's strong fiscal position, marked by declining debt and reduced subsidies, allows for potential increases in SA spending without raising debt levels.
• Subsidy vs. SA Spending: Despite the increase in SA, regressive energy subsidies still consume a large share of public expenditure, far exceeding targeted SA programs.
• Central Government Dominance: The central government accounts for nearly 90% of national SA expenditures, with SA programs forming a significant part of its budget.
• Sub-national Expenditures: Sub-national governments allocate a small portion of SA resources, mainly for administrative support and staff salaries, and play a secondary role in SA spending.

Key Information

National Expenditure Trends

• SA Expenditure Growth: SA expenditures increased from around 0.5% of GDP in 2005 to 2.6% in 2010.
• Sectoral Composition: In 2010, the SA sector accounted for 2.9% of total national expenditures, up from 1% in 2001.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Indonesia's debt-to-GDP ratio dropped from ~90% in 2000 to ~25% in 2010, indicating improved fiscal health.
• Fiscal Space: With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 25% in 2010, Indonesia has the fiscal space to increase SA and other development expenditures.

Central Government Expenditures

• Major SA Programs: The central government manages eight major SA programs and funds initiatives through Kemensos.
• Programs and Expenditures: Key programs include:
  • BLT (Unconditional Cash Transfer): Launched in 2005, temporarily increased in 2008-2009.
  • Raskin (Subsidized Rice): The largest and most enduring SA program.
  • Jamkesmas (Health Insurance for the Poor): Expanded and now covers over 70 million beneficiaries.
  • BSM (Cash Transfers for Poor Students): Focuses on students from poor households.
  • PKH (Conditional Cash Transfer): Launched in 2007, targeting preventive health and education services.

Sub-national Government Expenditures

• Limited Role: Sub-national governments account for just over 10% of national SA expenditures.
• District Governments: Districts are the primary actors in sub-national SA spending, with a focus on administration and salaries.
• Funding Structure: Sub-national SA spending is mostly allocated to support centrally-funded programs, with limited discretionary funds.

Summary of Expenditures

Central Government Expenditures by Program

Key Observations

• Fuel Subsidies: Despite the government's intention to reform, fuel subsidies remain a major fiscal burden, consuming over 20% of total national expenditures in some years.
• Subsidy Reform: The GOI has signaled a desire to reduce energy subsidies, but reform has stalled due to concerns over inflationary pressure.
• Fiscal Implications: Continued high fuel subsidy spending could hinder the government's ability to increase SA and other development expenditures.
• Program Focus: SA programs are primarily focused on protecting vulnerable households from fuel and food price shocks, as well as promoting education and health access.

Conclusion

Indonesia's public expenditure on social assistance has grown significantly since 2005, driven by central government reforms and the reallocation of fuel subsidy savings. While the central government dominates SA spending, sub-national governments play a limited role. The country's strong fiscal position offers opportunities to further increase SA spending, but ongoing fuel subsidy spending remains a challenge. Reform of the subsidy system is essential to redirect resources toward more targeted and effective social assistance programs.