2017年-世界发展银行全球_Zimbabwe_Public_Expenditure_Review_2017___Volume_1_Cross_Cutting_Issues_98页_9mb

Summary of Zimbabwe Public Expenditure Review 2017

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Zimbabwe's public expenditure landscape from 2011 to 2016, focusing on the challenges, capacities, and policy choices that impact fiscal management and service delivery. It is a joint effort by the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) and the World Bank, aiming to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of public spending.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Context

• Economic Recovery and Decline: Zimbabwe experienced a recovery from 2009 to 2012 due to dollarization, high commodity prices, and credit expansion. However, growth has since slowed, with per capita GDP decreasing by two percentage points in 2016.
• Poverty and Inequality: Poverty rates increased after a decline in 2014, and inequality remains a significant issue.
• Financial Crisis: Zimbabwe faces a severe financial crisis, marked by low credit availability, acute cash shortages, and a severe drought affecting agriculture and rural incomes.
• Debt and Fiscal Challenges: Public debt, including international arrears, accounts for 79% of GDP. The fiscal space is limited, and the state has exhausted most fiscal instruments.

Public Expenditure Trends

• Expenditure Share: Total government expenditures exceed 50% of GDP, comparable to high-income European countries.
• Wage Bill Dominance: Public sector wages represent a significant portion of the budget, consuming over 20% of total GDP. It accounts for 87% of central government revenue, 40% of local government expenditures, and over 20% of total State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) expenditures.
• Sectoral Spending: Social sectors saw a 33% increase in expenditures, while operations and maintenance (O&M) and capital spending remain underfunded.
• Budget Execution: Budget execution rates are uneven, with some ministries and local authorities performing better than others. The wage bill is a major factor in declining execution rates for capital and operations spending.
• Statutory Funds and Other Resources: Statutory funds and other resources are significant contributors to public expenditure, with some funds accounting for a large share of the budget.

Public Sector Wage Bill

• Cost Drivers: The wage bill is driven by unit costs, allowances, and employment headcounts.
• Sectoral Distribution: The wage bill is distributed across various sectors, with the public service sector being the largest contributor.
• Inflation and Salaries: Inflation has remained high, and salary trends show increasing costs, contributing to the fiscal burden.

Public Financial Management (PFM)

• Budget Preparation: The budget preparation process has been improved, with the introduction of program and results-based budgeting (RBB).
• Budget Execution: Strengthening cash controls and integrated financial management systems (IFMIS) is essential for effective budget execution.
• Auditing and Reporting: Internal and external auditing, along with parliamentary oversight, are critical for transparency and accountability in public finances.

Key Challenges

• Fiscal Imbalances: The GoZ has limited fiscal flexibility due to high debt levels and a bloated public sector.
• Inefficient Spending: The dominance of the wage bill has crowded out capital and O&M spending, limiting the state's ability to support growth and development.
• Social Safety Nets: Social safety nets have deteriorated, especially in the wake of the El Nino drought, affecting the most vulnerable populations.
• Education and Health: Despite increased school enrollment, many schools lack adequate infrastructure and qualified teachers, especially in early childhood education (ECD). Similarly, health facilities face challenges due to rising fees and charges.
• SOEs and Local Governments: SOEs and local governments contribute to the fiscal burden through contingent liabilities and non-wage expenditures.
• Fiscal Policy Credibility: The GoZ needs to enhance fiscal policy credibility to attract international investment and stabilize the economy.

Policy Recommendations

• Institutional Strengthening: The institutional framework for public financial management should be extended and implemented at the local level and within SEPs.
• Progressive Taxation: The GoZ should ensure that current approaches to resource mobilization are progressive, and that transfers and subsidies support equitable development.
• Private Sector Engagement: The state should promote private sector development while protecting the public interest through transparent and accountable arrangements.
• Reforms in PFM: Strengthening PFM through better coordination, transparency, and accountability is crucial for effective implementation of fiscal policy.
• Debt Management: Addressing fiscal imbalances and improving transparency will be essential to restore credibility and access to international financing.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe's public expenditure management is at a critical juncture. While the state has the potential to support growth and social welfare, the current fiscal framework is unsustainable and inefficient. The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in fiscal policy, PFM, and resource mobilization to ensure that public spending is effective, equitable, and well-targeted. By addressing these challenges and leveraging emerging opportunities, Zimbabwe can work towards a healthier fiscal system that supports long-term development and economic stability.