20160331-USDA-USDA_Fruit_and_Tree_Nuts_Outlook_2016.03.31_41页_755kb

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U.S. Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Summary (March 31, 2016)

Core Content

The U.S. fruit and tree nuts outlook for the 2015/16 season highlights a significant decline in citrus production, with some noncitrus fruits experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand. The report also provides an analysis of the price trends for various fruits and tree nuts, including the impact of weather conditions and production changes on market dynamics.

Key Trends and Forecasts

Citrus Production

Total U.S. citrus crop: Forecasted at 7.95 million tons, down 12% from 2014/15 and 16% from 2013/14.
All-orange production: Estimated at 5.36 million tons, down 16% from 2014/15.
Tangerines and mandarins: Production is expected to rise, with a record harvest of 907,000 tons.
Grapefruit: Production is projected to decline by 7% to 807,000 tons.
Lemons: Production is expected to decrease by 4%, but remain slightly above 2013/14 levels.
Florida's all-orange crop: Forecasted at 3.2 million tons, down 27% from the previous season.
California's all-orange crop: Forecasted at 2.1 million tons, a 7% increase from the previous season.

Price Outlook

Grower price index for fruit and nuts: Started strong in 2016, with an index of 135 in January, up from 123 in January 2015.
Orange prices: Declined in January 2016, falling almost 2% from the same time last year.
Grapefruit and lemon prices: Held strong due to reduced supplies and increased demand.
Fresh strawberries: Prices increased significantly due to limited supply, driven by poor weather in Florida and reduced imports from Mexico.
Apples and pears: Prices remained high due to reduced harvests and limited supplies, with fresh apple prices reaching a historical high in January.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Fresh fruit CPI: Rose 3% in January 2016, the highest since 1989.
Retail prices: Increased for lemons, Red Delicious apples, strawberries, and Thompson seedless grapes.
Bananas: Prices declined due to increased imports from Ecuador, Costa Rica, and other suppliers.

Regional Highlights

California

All-orange production: Increased by 7% to 2.1 million tons.
Navel oranges: Up 6% to 1.68 million tons.
Valencia oranges: Acreage declined to 32,000 acres, but fruit set increased significantly.
Early rains: Slowed harvest and contributed to higher prices in November and December.

Florida

All-orange production: Continued to decline, expected at 3.2 million tons.
Non-Valencia oranges: Down 24% from 2014/15 and nearly 32% below 2013/14 levels.
Valencia oranges: Harvest is faster than previous seasons, with only 60.4% of fruit remaining on the tree.
Orange juice production: Forecasted to decline by 25% to 458 million single-strength equivalent gallons.
Orange juice imports: Expected to decrease to 414 million sse gallons, a 9% drop from the previous season.
Orange juice exports: Projected to increase by 49% to 165 million sse gallons.
Domestic consumption: Expected to drop to 759 million sse gallons, with per capita consumption at 2.35 gallons per person.

Economic Insight

Fresh-Market Apples: Prices remained strong due to reduced supplies and slow market movement, leading to record prices in August through January.
Market conditions: Limited supplies, weather disruptions, and reduced imports contributed to higher prices for several fruits.
Supply-side factors: Reduced production in key states like Florida and Arizona, along with increased production in California, influenced market prices.

Key Tables and Data

Table 1: Monthly fruit prices received by growers, showing year-over-year changes for various commodities.
Table 2: U.S. monthly retail prices for selected fruits, including the impact of reduced imports and increased demand.
Table 3: Citrus production forecast for 2015/16, comparing 2013/14, 2014/15, and the 2015/16 forecast.
Table 4: Average on-tree prices for California fresh oranges, highlighting the trend of price increases in early months.
Table 5: Orange juice supply and utilization data, showing the expected decline in production and imports.

Outlook

Fresh fruit prices: Expected to continue declining in the coming months due to increased supplies from California and potential adverse weather affecting production.
Strawberry prices: May remain high due to constrained supplies from California, unless adverse weather impacts production.
Orange juice market: Likely to face reduced supplies and imports, which could affect domestic consumption and prices.

Contacts and Links

Gustavo Ferreira: gustavo.ferreira@ers.usda.gov
Agnes Perez: acperez@ers.usda.gov
Next release: June 30, 2016
Approved by: World Agricultural Outlook Board

Conclusion

The 2015/16 U.S. fruit and tree nuts outlook reflects a mix of declining citrus production, strong prices for some noncitrus fruits, and a projected shift in market dynamics due to changes in supply and demand. The report underscores the impact of long-term disease pressures, weather conditions, and international trade on the domestic market.

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